100
FNUS73 KSGF 221016
FWSSGF
SPOT FORECAST FOR BUSIEK PURPLE TRAIL BURN UNIT...MO DEPT OF CONSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
416 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0000 CST ON JANUARY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT 1-800-762-4363, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT AND DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 25-30% RANGE, BUT WILL KEEP WINDS RATHER SOMEWHAT
LIGHT OUT OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 5-8 MPH. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TERRAIN OF THE SPOT, YOU COULD
SEE SOME SPORADIC TIMES INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING BEFORE 12 PM WHEN MIXING COULD BRING DOWN SOME FASTER
WINDS ATOP THE SLOPE.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO
12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH AT TIMES. AMIDST THIS, VERY
COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE, BRINGING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO 25-30% RANGE. THAT SAID,
THERE IS A PRETTY HIGH CHANCE THAT THIS VALUE BECOMES LOWER WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WITH THE LATEST MODELS SHOWING A 70-80%
CHANCE OF BEING IN THE 20-25% RANGE, WHICH WOULD MAINLY IMPACT
SOUTHERN SLOPES WHICH THIS SPOT APPEARS TO BE. THIS BRINGS A VERY
SLIM CHANCE OF NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IF WINDS CAN INCREASE ABOVE 20 MPH.
FRIDAY
TIME (CST) MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........59 57 51 45 40 43 37 31 41 61 70 78 85 82 80 77 79 80
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............29 29 27 27 26 23 22 20 19 21 22 24 25 26 27 27 25 24
RH..............55 53 57 57 57 62 62 64 64 56 47 41 38 35 30 29 30 28
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 9 12 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10
20 FT WIND GUST.8 9 10 13 18 21 22 22 22 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5
MIX HGT (KM)....0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.E NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 9 10 15 20 20 23 25 24 23 22 21 20 20 20 20 20
TRANS WIND DIR..E NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 4 4 7 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9
HAINES INDEX....M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 3 4 5 11 19 20 35 43 41 46 46 44 43 44 44 44 43
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR
FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........82 86 89 93 94 95 96 96 95 95 95 95
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 80 80 80 80 80 80
TEMP............21 19 18 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 8
RH..............31 32 32 35 36 38 41 48 58 69 76 79
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.22 21 21 20 18 17 17 17 18 18 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
MIX HGT (KM)....0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
TRANS WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E
TRANS SPD (M/S).9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
HAINES INDEX....M M M M M M M M M M M M
VRATE KT-FT/1K..41 40 36 35 36 37 38 37 35 34 33 32
VENTRATE CAT....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SATURDAY
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........95 95 95 95 95 94 94 93 92 91 90 90
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
TEMP............7 7 7 8 9 10 12 13 15 15 14 14
RH..............83 87 91 91 91 96 91 91 84 84 88 84
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST.18 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
MIX HGT (KM)....0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E NE NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 18 17 17 17 16 16 15 15 14 14 14
TRANS WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E NE NE NE
TRANS SPD (M/S).8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6
HAINES INDEX....M M M M M M M M M M M M
VRATE KT-FT/1K..31 29 26 26 27 27 29 27 26 24 24 24
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FORECASTER...PRICE
REQUESTED BY...DISTRICT SUPERVISOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2600811.0/SGF
.DELDT 01/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL PAUL.JOHNSON@MDC.MO.GOV
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