873
FXUS63 KSGF 281942
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
142 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
- BITTERLY COLD AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BELOW ZERO.
- WARM UP STARTS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PUSHING OUT OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE REGION WITH A LIGHT WIND AND DRY
AIR MASS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS SHOT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
TONIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER OK. AS THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN
IMPACT ON ANY RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND FOR NOW
HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. WE ARE EXPECTING LOWS TO BE IN
THE TEENS MOST LOCATIONS TO NEAR 20 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY: THE UPPER WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND
WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE CEILINGS LOWER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES BY THURSDAY EVENING(GENERALLY LESS THAN 20% FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN, TO THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COLD AIR ARRIVAL: THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH 30% OR LESS CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. ANY RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 0.2" OF SNOW. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN FEATURE
WILL BE THE COLD AIR MASS BUIDING INTO THE AREA. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MORE ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA FRIDAY - SATURDAY: A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL DRIVE ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS SOUTH INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. AFTER ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WE'LL START TO RISE AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS TRYING TO GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING FOR HIGHS.
WARM UP NEXT WEEK: WE'LL START TO SEE UPPER RISING HEIGHTS AND
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FINALLY SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE DAY 8 THROUGH 14 DAY PERIOD
ARE STARTING TO CREEP TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WESTERN CWA,
SO THE WARM-UP MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WE'LL START TO GET MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LOWER TO AROUND
12-15KFT LATE TONIGHT. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL ON THE LOW SIDE DESPITE AN ADDITIONAL
DAY OF SNOW MELTING. FOR NOW, WE ARE GOING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE 00Z/06Z TAFS LIKELY TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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