495
FXUS63 KSGF 291708
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1108 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE'S A 20-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AREAS NORTH OF I-44 MAY SEE
FLURRIES AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-44 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.5" AND
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- BITTERLY COLD AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -15 DEGREES. A
COLD ADVISORY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
- WARM UP STARTS NEXT WEEK AND A SYSTEM ON TUESDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT. STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE'S A
20-30% CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
PRIMARILY FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-44. THE REST OF THE CWA COULD
SEE FLURRIES, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR LOW-END ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF I-44. PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS
RAIN, BUT SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE
COLDER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE AROUND 0.2" AND LESS THAN 0.5" AND LITTLE TO
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH, WITH THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FALLING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE, IF ROADS TO BECOME SNOW
COVERED REMEMBER TO TAKE IT SLOW AND USE CAUTION. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE
TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND BRING US
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. SKIES STAY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
HIGHS BARELY MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS GUST NEAR 20 MPH.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY FRONT AND WILL MAKE FOR A VERY CHILLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES START TO CLEAR OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LOWS WILL SIT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
-15 DEGREES. IT'S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE'LL NEED A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS RETURNING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES TO CENTRAL MO AGAIN.
CHANCE FOR SNOW IS 15-20% WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BRIEF WARM UP OCCURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 40S. THEN, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH A
WIDESPREAD 30-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT COULD
BE INTERESTING AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW, HOURLY TEMPERATURES START OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN DROPS INTO THE
MID 20S BY 6PM ACROSS THE AREA. IT'S TOO SOON TO NARROW DOWN
THE EXACT DETAILS OF PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS, THOUGH WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT DAY FOR ANY POTENTIAL WINTRY
WEATHER IMPACTS AND HAZARDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE
AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE BUT REMAINS IN VFR. HAVE LOWERED CEILNGS A
BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THIS EVENING, FAR
SOUTHERN MO INCLUDING BBG MAY HAVE SOME MVFR DEVELOP WITH A
PROB30 FOR LIGHT SNOW, BUT CAMS STRUGGLING ON DEVELOPING
ANYTHING. JLN/SGF SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS ARCTIC AIR MASS BEGINS
TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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