492
FXUS63 KSGF 300510
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1110 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES(15-30%) MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS
EVENING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD GENERALLY BE 0.3" OR LESS.
- BITTERLY COLD AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -15 DEGREES. A
COLD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHICH HAS A DIFFERENT THRESHOLD FOR THE ADVISORY. -5
AS OPPOSED TO
-10 FOR AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 60.
- WARM UP STARTS NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL.
- UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AND COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA. AN OBLONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS TO OUR SOUTH OVER
ARKANSAS. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD INTO THE AREA
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER
20S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MO TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER
WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE TEENS.
TONIGHT: SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE OH
VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HARD TO FIND ANY CAMS THAT BRING
MUCH PRECIPITATION IN WITH THIS WAVE TONIGHT, BUT DID KEEP IN SOME
LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS. CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH BASES LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY: UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE IN THE DAY WHILE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN
THE NORTH TO AROUND 31 IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. OUR THRESHOLD FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS -5 OR
COLDER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. 60 CORRIDOR AND -10 NORTH OF
THAT. WE ARE GOING TO BE ISSUING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A SALEM TO SPRINGFIELD TO FORT SCOTT LINE.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD WITH LOWS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIGHT WIND EXPECTED SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR
THEN.
WE SHOULD START TO SEE A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOP BEHIND THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS. BY MONDAY, WE SHOULD
START GETTING BACK TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS
WITH UPPER RISING HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST RAIN/SNOW/POSSIBLY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW
CHANCE (<10%) FOR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR MOZ077-082-083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...PEREZ
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