409
FXUS63 KSGF 301740
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1140 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES (<15%) FOR FLURRIES THROUGH TODAY. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED, WITH A DUSTING AT MOST.
- BITTERLY COLD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS AROUND -5 TO -15 DEGREES. A COLD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS INTO
SOUTHERN MO. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S, TO NEAR 50.
- LOWER CONFIDENCE IN A POTENTIAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES, INCLUDING ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT:
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION, WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE PATTERN, AS AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY. AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT, SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL ATTEMPT TO SQUEEZE SOME MOISTURE OUT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. RADAR DEPICTS THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT ECHOS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH AN ADDITIONAL BATCH TO
THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM KSGF DEPICTED THE
PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FORCING LATER TODAY TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCES (<15%)
FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MO THIS EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AND THUS NO POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS A
DUSTING AT MOST MAY OCCUR.
THE STORYLINE THEN TURNS TO THE RETURN OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS, WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS SUPPORTING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
-5 TO -15. WITH THAT IN MIND, A COLD WEATHER IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHERN MO FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS WHERE CRITERIA FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
BEING MET OR EXCEEDED AS A RESULT OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS
LINGERING THROUGH TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE WHETHER IN THE ADVISORY OR NOT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN.
A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE PATTERN INTO SUNDAY AS THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OUT WEST NUDGES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S AS WINDS TURN
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY-THURSDAY:
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SUPPORTING
INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME GUIDANCE THAT DOES NOT
COMPLETELY BUY INTO THIS SOLUTION, AS GLEANED FROM AN
INTERQUARTILE SPREAD OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES. FACTORS THAT MAY STILL
LIMIT WARMING ON MONDAY INCLUDE THE PRESENCE OF A SNOWPACK AND
THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. NONETHELESS, CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
THE "WARMER" TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY, A DIP IN THE JET STREAM SUGGESTS A
A SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL, AND RUN TO RUN VARIANCE ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT THIS TIME IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE LOWERED
POPS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH AREAWIDE 20
TO 40% CHANCES. ADDITIONALLY, THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE IF ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION
IS INTRODUCED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING). CHECK FOR BACK FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
AS WE GET INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN BECOMES
RATHER BENIGN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED. THIS TREND IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON
INTO LATE WINTER AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN INTO FIRE WEATHER
SEASON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
CURRENT BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 22Z, THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS
TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. IT WILL ALSO BRING IN A LOW
CLOUD DECK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE AND EXACT LEVEL
IS CURRENTLY MEDIUM-LOW. CURRENT GUIDANCE GIVES A 40-60% CHANCE
OF MVFR, AND A SLIGHTLY LOWER 30-45% CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE, HAVE OPTED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AT
2 KFT MVFR SINCE IF IFR CLOUDS ARE SCT IN COVERAGE,
IMPACTFULNESS WILL BE LIMITED.
THE SECOND QUESTION IS HOW LONG CLOUDS LINGER, WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LINGERING CLOUDS AT SGF THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS OUTLINED IN THE TAF, BUT SCT COVERAGE IS
GIVEN FOR TIMEFRAMES AFTER 08-12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LINGERING CLOUDS.
SOME FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE CLOUD COVERAGE (<15% CHANCE),
BUT IMPACTS TO TAF SITES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR MOZ077-082-083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PRICE
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