059
FXUS63 KSGF 302001
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
201 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS AROUND -5 TO -15 DEGREES. A COLD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS INTO
SOUTHERN MO. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED FLURRIES THROUGH TONIGHT, AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED, WITH A DUSTING AT MOST.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEAR
NORMAL. HIGHS EITHER IN THE MIDDLE 40S, OR THE MIDDLE 50S.
- 15-30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS, BUT FORECAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD MOSTLY RAIN WITH
GREATER COVERAGE EAST OF OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS CAN BE EASILY
SPOTTED IN MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LEADING EDGE IS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH MISSOURI/KANSAS, WITH THE ARCTIC AIR
LOCKED WITHIN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF IT WITHIN
IOWA/MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS AIR MASS COINCIDES
WITH A STRAIGHT WEST-EAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION. WEST OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST CONUS IS PRODUCING MERIDIONAL NORTH-SOUTH
FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES.
FLURRIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT:
THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE, ALONG WITH A SMALL JET
AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS LEADING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT BOTH
FROM LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING, THE WEST-EAST NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE MEANS NO NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION. THUS, ONLY
FLURRIES WITH SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED VIA
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THESE FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5 AND -15:
AFTER THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THE ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE IN WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -5 TO -15 DEGREES. HREF GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS, WHICH MAY KEEP AREAS LOCALLY WARMER. SO, A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GREATEST LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN -5 TO -15 F WIND
CHILLS. HIGHS WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 20S DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.
FLURRIES TO "MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES" POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INITIATE ADDITIONAL
STRONG PVA AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE, WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MANIFEST IN THE MODELS.
FOR NOW, THERE ISN'T REALLY A FOOTPRINT IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A VERY DRY AIR MASS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ACCORDING TO HREF/REFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER,
MUCH LIKE TODAY, WITH THE STRONG FORCING, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A QUICK BAND OF FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM WEST
TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT, IMPACTS ARE SHOULD ONLY
BE A DUSTING OF SNOW, BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
SCENARIO IN BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW WITHIN THE BAND THAT DROPS A
QUICK LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN SOME AREAS.
LOWS THEN DROP TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EASTERN OZARKS,
TO THE LOWER TEENS ALONG THE MOKS BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL:
FOLLOWING THE SECOND COMPACT SHORTWAVE, WE FINALLY START TO SEE
SOME COLD RELIEF AS GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHIFT THE UPPER-LEVEL
LONGWAVE PATTERN EASTWARD, WHICH RAISES HEIGHTS IN OUR AREA
BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THIS WILL RE-INITATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND SUBSEQUENT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 30S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THEN GETS A BIT NUANCED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WHILE THE GENERAL TREND WILL BRING US NEAR NORMAL
(NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S), THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MAY BE
UNREPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS. THIS IS DUE TO A BI-
MODAL DISTRIBUTION IN THE NBM SPLIT BY THE ENS AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES. MONDAY, MOST ENS MEMBERS HAVE US RANGING FROM 35-45
F WHILE MOST GEFS MEMBERS HAVE US RANGING FROM 50-60 F. THIS
MEANS THE MEAN TEMPERATURE IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 45 AND 50.
HOWEVER, EITHER SCENARIO DOES NOT FIT THAT RANGE. THEREFORE, AT
THIS TIME, THERE IS GENERALLY EQUAL WEIGHTING IN SEEING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THERE IS
SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
THE ENS HAS A KNOWN COOL BIAS AND SHOWS A FLATTER RIDGE LEADING
TO THE COOLER SCENARIO, WHILE THE GEFS HAS A KNOWN WARM BIAS
AND SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE LEADING TO THE WARMER SCENARIO.
WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN PLAYS OUT TO SEE WHICH BECOMES
FAVORED, BUT AT THE MOMENT, THE BIAS-WEIGHTED DETERMINISTIC NBM
SEEMS TO LIKE THE GEFS SCENARIO WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S AND IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY. NO MATTER
THE SCENARIO, THOUGH, THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
COLD RELIEF AND BEGIN APPRECIABLY MELTING THE SNOWPACK.
15-30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY. TRENDING TOWARD RAIN:
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WON'T LAST LONG, THOUGH, AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM. LREF CLUSTERS ARE STILL A BIT WHIFFY-WAFFLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM, LARGELY DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE LAYOUT. HOWEVER, AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT, MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER EAST AND WARMER LEADING
TO ONLY 15-30% CHANCES OF RAIN (MAYBE A RAIN-SNOW MIX IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI) TUESDAY. THERE STILL ROOM FOR CHANGE GIVEN THE
CLUSTER DIFFERENCES AND EXPECTED TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
THE FREEZING LINE SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. FOR NOW, THOUGH,
MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.
FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY DROP AGAIN
INTO THE 30S WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS AROUND 20 F. AS WAS SEEN THIS
WEEKEND, THE UPSTREAM BRANCH OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BRING ENOUGH
FORCING TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME MORE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT WE ARE TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE THAT
FOR SURE.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN FOLLOWING THE "SYSTEM":
THE LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE THEN POINTS TO RISING HEIGHTS AND A
PRONOUNCED RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL. NBM
SPREADS ARE A BIT LARGE, BUT HOVER AROUND NORMAL WITH THE 25TH
PERCENTILE IN THE LOWER 40S AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE IN THE UPPER
50S. LOWS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
CURRENT BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 22Z, THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS
TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. IT WILL ALSO BRING IN A LOW
CLOUD DECK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE AND EXACT LEVEL
IS CURRENTLY MEDIUM-LOW. CURRENT GUIDANCE GIVES A 40-60% CHANCE
OF MVFR, AND A SLIGHTLY LOWER 30-45% CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE, HAVE OPTED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AT
2 KFT MVFR SINCE IF IFR CLOUDS ARE SCT IN COVERAGE,
IMPACTFULNESS WILL BE LIMITED.
THE SECOND QUESTION IS HOW LONG CLOUDS LINGER, WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LINGERING CLOUDS AT SGF THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS OUTLINED IN THE TAF, BUT SCT COVERAGE IS
GIVEN FOR TIMEFRAMES AFTER 08-12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LINGERING CLOUDS.
SOME FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE CLOUD COVERAGE (<15% CHANCE),
BUT IMPACTS TO TAF SITES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR MOZ077-082-083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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