892
FXUS63 KSGF 311113
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
513 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD THIS MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHERN MO.
- ISOLATED FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED, WITH A DUSTING AT MOST.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS EITHER IN THE MIDDLE 40S, OR
THE MIDDLE 50S.
- LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS, BUT FORECAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD MOSTLY
RAIN WITH GREATER COVERAGE EAST OF OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH BROUGHT SOME SHALLOW SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI LAST NIGHT THAT PRODUCED LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF A DUSTING OF SNOW. A SECOND SHORTWAVE COULD BE
OBSERVED OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA PROVINCES IN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS
SINKING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING
ARCTIC AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
COLD TODAY:
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 0 DEGREES
THIS MORNING, AND WITH WINDS STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED BETWEEN 5
TO 10 MPH, WIND CHILLS WILL BE BETWEEN -5 TO -15 DEGREES THIS
MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL,
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
LOW CHANCE OF FLURRIES TONIGHT:
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER CANADA WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TO THE AREA.
FURTHERMORE, NAM OUTPUT DEPICTS AN FGEN FOOTPRINT BETWEEN THE
800-700 MB LAYER SWEEPING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD PROVIDE FORCING FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION. INSPECTION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEALS
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE,
HOWEVER, SO ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
10 TO 15% PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NO IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 AM CST SAT
JAN 31 2026
WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK:
GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACCOMPANYING HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN THE (AT LEAST BRIEF)
RETURN OF NEAR OR PERHAPS ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD AND THEREFORE THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMING; THAT
IS, THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY RANGES FROM THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, THE ONLY REAL IMPACT THIS DIFFERENCE
WILL HAVE IS ON THE EFFICIENCY OF MELTING THE EXISTING
SNOWPACK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY:
ENSEMBLES HAVE PROGGED A SHORTWAVE TO SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
ON TUESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS SOURCE OF LIFT, SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRING JUST ENOUGH AND JUST-IN-TIME MOISTURE NORTH INTO
THE MISSOURI OZARKS TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA. AS GUIDANCE AS TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER, RAIN HAS BECOME
FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, WITH CURRENTLY
FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI, MODEL TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE
COMING DAYS TO BETTER ASSESS PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS POINT,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND THE
OVERALL QPF FOOTPRINT APPEARS SMALL AND LIGHT FOR OUR AREA. NBM
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIT BETWEEN 15 TO 40% ON TUESDAY AND ARE
HIGHEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
DRY AND NEAR TO ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WED THRU FRI:
ENSEMBLES BRING A DRIER AIRMASS BACK TO THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, STUNTING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB AGAIN, WITH NBM DATA SUPPORTING HIGHS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON, AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AFTER 00Z. INTERMITTENT FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
CURRENT TAFS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ077-
082-083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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