068
FXUS63 KSGF 010118
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
718 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 10-20% CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST
OF I-49. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED, WITH A DUSTING
AT MOST. FLURRIES POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS PEAK EITHER IN THE MIDDLE
40S, OR THE MIDDLE 50S BY MONDAY.
- 10-35% PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS,
BUT FORECAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD MOSTLY RAIN WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE EAST OF OUR AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 718 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A DRY AIR MASS IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 65, BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRIER THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE LIFT
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR MASS THAT IS
IN PLACE, BUT STILL SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65, WITH MAYBE A BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WEST OF I-49
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT SO
NOT EXPECTED MUCH IMPACTS, BUT WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE
A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-49 WITH ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT CAN DEVELOP, BUT THIS IS A LOW CHANCE OF
OCCURRING (<20%).
LIGHT WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES
ARE COOLING QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO RETURNING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST MAY COOL TO THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN STEADY OF EVEN START
WARMING BY THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING. FURTHER EAST CLOUDS AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS SO COOL MORNING LOWS
WILL OCCUR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE LOWER TEENS
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY DEEP AND AMPLIFIED
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
FLORIDA. BASED ON RAP ANALYSIS, THE TAIL-END OF THE WESTERN
BRANCH OF THE NORTH-SOUTH JET STREAK IS JUST EXITING SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. THIS JET STREAK, ALONG WITH THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE
DEEP TROUGH, IS FORCING A 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURE READINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
CLIMB TODAY AS THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH SINKS THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS HAS KEPT CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS,
THOUGH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTS TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S TODAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE
IS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
10-20% CHANCE OF FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL RACE SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. A
NARROW BAND OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH AXIS. ALONG THIS AREA OF
FORCING, SNOW IS ALREADY ONGOING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
BAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING, POTENTIALLY REACHING OUR SOUTHEAST KANSAS COUNTIES AND
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BY 8-11 PM TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, RAP
FORECASTS APPEAR TO FLATTEN THE TROUGHING OF THE WAVE, WEAKENING
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR IN PLACE
BELOW THE MAIN SOURCE OF FORCING WILL LEAD TO GREATER
SUBLIMATION OF THE SNOW. AS A RESULT, THE BAND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA, PERHAPS
DIMINISHING TO LINGERING FLURRIES. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW TRANSIENT BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. HREF CAMS SUCH AS
THE HRRR/NAMNEST/NSSL DO HOLD TOGETHER A FEW BANDS INTO THAT
CORRIDOR, SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. ANY IMPACTS WOULD
STILL BE MINOR WITH ONLY A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION AND BRIEF
DROPS IN VISIBILITY WITH THE SNOW OCCURRING AT NIGHT.
AFTERWARDS, ANOTHER SMALL, COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE FIRST, COMING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI THIS TIME. THIS
MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL FLURRIES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 65. HOWEVER, WITH MOST OF THE FORCING EAST OF OUR
AREA, AND AN ANALYSIS OF HREF MEAN SOUNDING PROFILES SHOWING THE
DGZ ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS ROUND OF
FLURRIES.
WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S:
THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT PUSHES THROUGH OUR
SOUTHWESTERN AREA. THE SHORTWAVE SUNDAY PUSHES THROUGH EAST
MISSOURI. AS A RESULT, IN THE MIDDLE, OUR LONGWAVE HEIGHTS
INCREASE, WHICH BRINGS BACK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION, INITIATING OUR WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TO
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. LOWS ALSO SEPARATE AWAY FROM SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
AND "WARM" INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
WARMER ON MONDAY:
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMER ON MONDAY THAN THEY ARE TODAY,
UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND A LIFTING WARM FRONT. SEVERAL
QUESTIONS MARKS STILL REMAIN REGARDING JUST HOW WARM, WITH AN NBM
25TH/75TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES
STILL. THIS LARGE SPREAD CAN BE EXPLAINED BY EVERY GEFS MEMBER
CONTRIBUTING A >50F SOLUTION, AND NEARLY EVERY, IF NOT ALL, ENS
MEMBER CONTRIBUTING A <45F SOLUTION. CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE SLIGHTLY
MORE VARIED, BUT STILL LARGELY FALL INTO THE WARMER GEFS CLUSTERS.
SNOWPACK AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE SOLUTION. BUT EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER, LOCAL UPPER AIR
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT IF 850MB TEMPERATURES DO EXCEED 6C (WHICH
EVEN EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING), THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY:
THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH A SHORTWAVE PULSING
SOUTHWARD OFF A PARENT LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
MIDWEST, SENDING A COLD FRONT BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOW TO MEDIUM, 15-35%, ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-44, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE FAR EASTERN
OZARKS AND TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA. A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE OF
RAIN STILL STANDS, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S, THOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER WINTRY PRECIP WILL MIX IN IF IT DOES PRECIPITATE IN OUR
AREA. QPF FOOTPRINT REMAINS LOW IN BOTH AMOUNT AND SPACE,
CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS AND BELOW 0.05". ONE THING
THAT WILL HELP COMBAT FROZEN PRECIP IS THE TIMING: BEST PRECIP
CHANCES THIS FAR WEST WILL BE CONFINED TO DAYTIME HOURS.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH IN DETAILS
WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH LOW POPS.
DRY AND WARMER REST OF THE WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO BREAK DOWN
RIDGING OUT WEST, SUPPORTING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR NEAR-NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S,
WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING THEN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HIGHS LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT BUT THERE QUESTIONS IN
COVERAGE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...WISE
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