440
FXUS63 KSGF 011100
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
500 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LESS THAN 15% CHANCE FOR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- WARMING TREND EARLY WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS PEAK EITHER IN THE MIDDLE 40S,
OR THE MIDDLE 50S BY MONDAY.
- 15 TO 25% PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MO. FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT:
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WITH
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES IS OVERSPREADING THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WHILE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT OVER
THE REGION, THERE CONTINUES TO BE SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR THROUGH
THE LOW-LEVELS DESPITE SOME MOISTURE OVERRIDING INTO THE MID-
LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE ARE SEEING SOME RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING
ALOFT, WITH LITTLE TO REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT THE
SURFACE. THIS AREA IS FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MO, OR GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THIS LOWER CONFIDENCE SETUP, WE
ARE PLANNING TO MAINTAIN <15% POPS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS. MEANWHILE, SURFACE WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LATER TODAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS, A LIGHT BREEZE WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS THIS MORNING AROUND -5 TO 0 DEGREES, WITH AMBIENT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
BY LATER TODAY, CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES NUDGING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
REGION WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
(WEST) TO LOWER/MIDDLE 30S (EAST). THE CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR
MOST AREAS TODAY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME MELTING OF THE EXISTING
SNOWPACK. ONE AREA IN QUESTION WOULD BE AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 5
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MO. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUDS
LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN ADDITION TO A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THIS POTENTIAL AND POPS ARE AT <15%. LOWS
TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
MONDAY:
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT WARM UP INTO
MONDAY WITH PERSIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW
MUCH WE ARE ABLE TO WARM UP AREAWIDE WITH AN EXISTING SNOWPACK
AND INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. NBM INTERQUARTILE SPREADS
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES, RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S TO
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. ONE ASPECT THAT MAY SHED SOME LIGHT ON
FORECAST HIGHS IN LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH
GUIDANCE DEPICTING 4 TO 6 C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ON THE
WARMER SIDE. THUS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A WARMER DAY ON
MONDAY, WITH SNOWMELT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
A DIP IN THE JET STREAM WITH A TRANSIENT TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON TUESDAY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BRIEF COOLDOWN AND LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE COOLDOWN RETURNS HIGHS INTO THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, THERE REMAINS
SOME LOW POPS (15-25%) ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE LATEST TRENDS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
LESS MOISTURE AND A SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AS A
RESULT, THE ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MO ON TUESDAY. THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY WINTRY MIX.
ADDITIONALLY, QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS, THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LESS AND LESS
OF A STORYLINE.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:
AS WE GET BEYOND MID-WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT ON ADDITIONAL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN AREAWIDE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
FURTHERMORE, THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH NO
POPS THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS, WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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