015
FXUS63 KSGF 160537
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1137 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 9 AM
MONDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44 AND ALONG AND
EAST OF THE POLK TO STONE COUNTY LINE. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP
BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
- WINDY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE WEST OF
SPRINGFIELD.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY (70-90% CHANCE) THIS
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH AIDED IN BRINGING US SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA, BUT ALSO BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY. A RIDGE AXIS WAS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE FROM THE PLAINS
WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THE SURFACE LOW
WAS OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER WHICH WAS OVER
THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING QUICKLY DISSIPATED BY LATE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT NOON WERE RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TONIGHT: SOME RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL RESIDE THE LONGEST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WE
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
WE APPROACH THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND. HREF PROBABILITIES OF >50% FOR
DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z
AND LINGER UNTIL AROUND 12Z-13Z. NOT PLANNING ON AN ADVISORY
JUST YET SINCE IT ISN'T A SLAM DUNK, BUT ADDED THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE FORECAST. LESS CHANCE FOR FOG IN THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE
CWA DUE TO SURFACE WINDS INCREASING EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 30S IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOW 40S IN THE WEST.
MONDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP. SURFACE
WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH OVER THE WESTERN CWA. FOG SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY: AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET(150-160KTS),
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP STRONG WINDS
IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. MIXING UP TO AROUND 900MB SHOWS A
POTENTIAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 30 TO 40 KTS. WE MAY SEE SOME
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH DURING THE DAY WEST OF
SPRINGFIELD.
THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STAYING NORTH OF OUR CWA, BUT DOES
GET INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA(15-25%).
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-THURSDAY: AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY, STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DESPITE THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO COOL THINGS
DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR READINGS EACH DAY.
THESE HIGHS MAY APPROACH OR ECLIPSE RECORDS AS WELL AS SOME
POTENTIAL WARMEST LOWS(SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THESE RECORDS).
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL
PROBABLY LOWER TEMPERATURES CLOSER BACK TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. THERE IS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THAT INCLUDES SGF AND BBG, BUT FOG PROBABILITIES ARE
MUCH HIGHER TO THE EAST, AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE FOG IN THESE TAFS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z CLOSER TO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES, BUT
THE TAF WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY IF OBSERVATIONS BEGIN TO
CHANGE.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO START,
INCREASING WITH DAYLIGHT AND GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS DECREASE BY 0Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 17:
KSGF: 73/1911
KJLN: 74/2011
KVIH: 73/2017
FEBRUARY 18:
KSGF: 74/2016
KJLN: 78/1986
KVIH: 72/1991
KUNO: 77/1986
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 75/2017
KVIH: 76/2017
KUNO: 73/1981
RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 17:
KSGF: 54/2011
KJLN: 63/1911
KUNO: 55/1961
KVIH: 55/1961
FEBRUARY 18:
KSGF: 51/1971
KJLN: 58/1971
KUNO: 53/1971
KVIH: 50/2017
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 52/1994
KJLN: 53/1943
KUNO: 54/1994
KVIH: 54/1994
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MOZ070-071-
079>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...NELSON
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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