344
FXUS63 KSGF 161925
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
125 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SOME POTENTIAL RECORDS(SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
- WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUST
POTENTIAL OF 30 TO 45 MPH.
- RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT(15-30%), THURSDAY(20-30%) AND
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT(15-20%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW TWO STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS OFF THE WEST COAST. ONE OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND ANOTHER OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WITH A JET
STREAK OF 100-120KTS PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 40KTS WAS ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT: UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND JET STREAK WILL PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION WITH JET STREAK INCREASING TO AROUND
150-160KTS. WIDESPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE EXPECTED INTO THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOW 40S IN
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
TUESDAY: UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN OUR WESTERN CWA
OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WITH 25 TO 30
MPH GUSTS IN THE EAST. EVEN THOUGH THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
HIGHS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT: THE WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER
WIND GUSTS DURING THE EVENING UP TO 45 MPH IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN CWA. A NARROW LINE OF INSTABILITY MAY SET UP JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER ENERGY GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER(15-30% FOR RAIN). THE MAIN
AREA OF RAIN WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW POPS INTO THE FORECAST
FOR MAINLY OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY: A DRIER
AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD
EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH SHOULD REACH THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY APPROACH OR BREAK SOME RECORDS(SEE
CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARMEST LOWS).
A SECONDARY LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. SOME MOISTURE WILL TRY TO SNEAK BACK UP TO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
READINGS. UPPER ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
WITH LOW END RAIN CHANCES(15-25%) FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OF 40 TO 50 KTS IN THE LOWER 2000 FEET IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING FROM 25 TO 28 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 17:
KSGF: 73/1911
KJLN: 74/2011
KUNO: 77/1986
KVIH: 73/2017
FEBRUARY 18:
KSGF: 74/2016
KJLN: 78/1986
KVIH: 72/1991
KUNO: 77/1986
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 75/2017
KJLN: 78/2017
KVIH: 76/2017
KUNO: 73/1981
RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 17:
KSGF: 54/2011
KJLN: 63/1911
KUNO: 55/1961
KVIH: 55/1961
FEBRUARY 18:
KSGF: 51/1971
KJLN: 58/1971
KUNO: 53/1971
KVIH: 50/2017
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 52/1994
KJLN: 53/1943
KUNO: 54/1994
KVIH: 54/1994
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page