615
FXUS63 KSGF 170843
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SOME RECORDS THREATENED (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
- WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST
GUSTS MAY REACH 30 TO 45 MPH.
- RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT (15-30%), THURSDAY (15-25%) AND
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (30-35%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: UPPER RIDGING HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE LAST DEEP SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST, AND A
VERY DYNAMIC LOW IS CURRENTLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MANY WEST OF
THE ROCKIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE OZARKS AT
ALL LEVELS TODAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL LOW PUSHES IN AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS THROUGH.
THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY,
ESPECIALLY SPRINGFIELD AND WEST WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED UP TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
30 TO 40 MPH. THANKFULLY, WE'RE STILL HANGING ON TO LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM THE LAST SYSTEM, SO MINIMUM RH AROUND 45% SHOULD
PRECLUDE TOO MUCH FIRE DANGER TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES, THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAA WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO ROCKET UP INTO THE HIGH 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE FAR EAST COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW 60S DUE TO MUCH WEAKER
WAA COMPARED TO THE WEST.
WINDS DON'T DIE DOWN UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALL THE CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP LOWS WARM, IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THE "FRONT"
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT, BUT WON'T AFFECT WIND DIRECTION OR
TEMPERATURES VERY MUCH, AS IT IS MORE LIKE A DRYLINE THAT WORKS TO
SWEEP OUR MOISTURE AWAY. DEWPOINTS TAKE A NOSEDIVE AS WE HEAD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER. VERY LOW POPS
(LARGELY <20%) ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. CAMS INDICATE
A NARROW (POSSIBLY BROKEN) BAND OF LIGHT RAIN THAT DIMINISHES AS IT
MOVES EAST. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY TRANSIENT BAND OF ABOUT
200 J/KG OF MUCAPE. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY, AND AREAS THAT SEE
RAIN SHOULD ONLY SEE A SMALL AMOUNT FOR A SHORT TIME.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, SKIES CLEAR OUT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES. HIGHS AGAIN SOAR INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS, CREATING ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY TAME. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ANOTHER LEE CYCLONE PASSES BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH, AND IT DRAWS UP JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN OUR FAR EAST TO BRING
POPS UP TO 15-25% ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 63. WE MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY
FLOW LONG ENOUGH TO REACH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BEFORE
THE LOW FORCES US INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES CRASH
OVERNIGHT. WE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ALSO RETURN TO NORMAL,
LANDING IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
A COMPLEX PATTERN SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND MODELS
STILL AREN'T AGREEING ON WHAT IT MEANS FOR OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AT THE MOMENT WE'RE LOOKING AT AREA-WISE POPS UP TO 30-35%
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY WITH UP TO A
10% OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
HEADED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN INTERESTING INVERTED RIDGE PATTERN
LOOKS TO WARM US UP AGAIN, WITH THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK AGAIN
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
LLWS TO CONTEND WITH. IT WILL START AT 40-45 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BUT STRENGTHEN TO 45-50 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BY 14-18Z (EARLIEST AT JLN). SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY,
ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE, CAUSING THE HIGHER MAGNITUDE LLWS
AROUND THAT TIME. GUSTS AT THE SURFACE WILL MAXIMIZE AT 30-35
KTS FROM 18Z TO 6Z. VFR CIG/VIS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 17:
KSGF: 73/1911
KJLN: 74/2011
KUNO: 77/1986
KVIH: 73/2017
FEBRUARY 18:
KSGF: 74/2016
KJLN: 78/1986
KVIH: 72/1991
KUNO: 77/1986
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 75/2017
KJLN: 78/2017
KVIH: 76/2017
KUNO: 73/1981
RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 17:
KSGF: 54/2011
KJLN: 63/1911
KUNO: 55/1961
KVIH: 55/1961
FEBRUARY 18:
KSGF: 51/1971
KJLN: 58/1971
KUNO: 53/1971
KVIH: 50/2017
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 52/1994
KJLN: 53/1943
KUNO: 54/1994
KVIH: 54/1994
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...NELSON
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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