450
FXUS63 KSGF 172131
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
331 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME
RECORDS THREATENED (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
- WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS MAY
REACH 30 TO 40 MPH.
- ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS WARM AND
DRY AIR MASS COMBINES WITH GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT (15-30%), THURSDAY (15-25%) AND
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (30-35%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING, COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ANY RAIN THAT IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BEHIND THE
FRONT WHICH WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT COOL MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT AS LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL ALSO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, AND WITH MIXING,
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 TO 25%.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY AROUND 10MPH, WITH
MIXING THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE.
THE WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S, SOME MIDDLE
70 READINGS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PLEASE SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY WHERE DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE 20 TO 30% RANGE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS TO CREATE ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND COULD APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA. A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY,
BUT THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT ON A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH MAINLY DRY BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<20%)
FOR A SPRINKLE LIGHT SHOWER THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EAST BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE, BUT WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO
THE 25 TO 35% RANGE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 10MPH AND GUSTS LESS THAN 20MPH.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND
STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS
ARE BRINGING THE SYSTEM DRY WHERE OTHERS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED, SO ONLY
EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BE BANDED IN NATURE AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THE BETTER LIFT. A
COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
COULD SUPPORT A LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN LIGHT SNOW MIX. THOUGH, THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPTIATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HIGHS IN THE 40S LOWS IN THE 20S AND TEENS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A WARMING TREND
AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT
KJLN AND KSGF. WIND GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS AT KBBG. LLWS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE
GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TAPER OFF INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST PREVAILING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. A WARMER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL OCCUR (MIXING
HEIGHTS OF 4500 TO 5000FT) AND ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP TO 15 TO
25% WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 15MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA BUT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW.
THE WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S AGAIN. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL START OFF OUT OF THE WEST
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THEN WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30
TO 40MPH, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. MIXING
WILL AGAIN OCCUR (AROUND 5000FT) WITH RH FALLING INTO THE 20 TO
30% RANGE. IF SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR IT'S
POSSIBLE RH VALUES COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS 15% THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 17:
KSGF: 73/1911
KJLN: 74/2011
KUNO: 77/1986
KVIH: 73/2017
FEBRUARY 18:
KSGF: 74/2016
KJLN: 78/1986
KVIH: 72/1991
KUNO: 77/1986
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 75/2017
KJLN: 78/2017
KVIH: 76/2017
KUNO: 73/1981
RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 17:
KSGF: 54/2011
KJLN: 63/1911
KUNO: 55/1961
KVIH: 55/1961
FEBRUARY 18:
KSGF: 51/1971
KJLN: 58/1971
KUNO: 53/1971
KVIH: 50/2017
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 52/1994
KJLN: 53/1943
KUNO: 54/1994
KVIH: 54/1994
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PEREZ
FIRE WEATHER...WISE
CLIMATE...NELSON
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