699
FXUS63 KSGF 180902
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME
RECORDS APPROACHED (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
- WINDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 30 MPH BUT WILL DROP OFF BY LUNCH TIME
- ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS COMBINES WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (30-50%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
LOOKING AT THE IR SATELLITE IMAGE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A
DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI ANDS THEN BACK WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30
MPH. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BEHIND IT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL MUCH BEHIND THE
FRONT AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70.
WHAT WILL OCCUR UNDER CLEARING SKIES IS INCREASINGLY DRY AIR
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON FALLING INTO THE 15 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THIS COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES, UNSEASONABLY
WARM (POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD) TEMPERATURES, AND DRY AIR WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD, HOWEVER, ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE STARTS. SOME LOCAL AREAS
OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERN MAY OCCUR BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENHANCE A SURFACE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING THAT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
OZARKS WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS ADDING TO THE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THAT WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE FROM TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE REGIONS FIRST
RED FLAG WARNING DAY OF THE 2026 SPRING FIRE WEATHER SEASON.
THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AGAIN FROM 15 TO 25%. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT COOLER
AIR LAG UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR
MIDDLE TO LATE FEBRUARY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
WITH THE LINGERING DRY AIR OVER THE OZARKS, CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S DESPITE
THE COLD START. THANKS TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS,
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25 TO 35%
RANGE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER GENERALLY LESS THAN 10MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS LESS THAN 20MPH. SOME AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERN MAY OCCUR, BUT SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS SHOULD
NOT BE REACHED.
SYNOPTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE TRY TO HINT AT A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH INT THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW THAT WOULD BRING A LIMITED CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT, IF ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN MAKE IT INTO
THE REGION TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, 30-50%, BUT TRENDS HAVE BEEN
DOWNWARD AND IF RAIN DOES OCCUR, MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
RAIN WOULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. A COOLER AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT INT5 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE COULD SUPPORT A LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN LIGHT
SNOW MIX IF PRECIPITATION DOES MATERIALIZE.
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HIGHS IN THE 40S LOWS IN THE 20S AND TEENS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH A POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER WARMING
TREND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS WITH SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH DRY AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA NO
IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AT
TIMES FROM 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE DROPPING OFF.
FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FROM 5 TO 10
KTS. LLWS WILL ALSO BE IMPACTFUL OVERNIGHT AS A 50 TO 65KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE
OZARKS, EXITING TO THE EAST BY SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A WARMER
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE
MIDDLE 70S. MORNING GUSTY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TODAY. MIXING WILL OCCUR (MIXING HEIGHTS OF 4500
TO 5000FT) AND ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP TO 15 TO 25% THIS
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 TO 20 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. WITH
THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA AS A RESULT OF THE LIGHTER WINDS.
THE WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S AGAIN. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL START OFF OUT OF THE WEST
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THEN WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30
TO 40MPH, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. MIXING
WILL AGAIN OCCUR (AROUND 5000FT) WITH RH FALLING INTO THE 20 TO
30% RANGE. IF SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR IT'S
POSSIBLE RH VALUES COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS 15% THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LINGERING DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS. THIS
WILL LIMIT RH VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35% RANGES AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AS WELL.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 18:
KSGF: 74/2016
KJLN: 78/1986
KVIH: 72/1991
KUNO: 77/1986
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 75/2017
KJLN: 78/2017
KVIH: 76/2017
KUNO: 73/1981
RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 18:
KSGF: 51/1971
KJLN: 58/1971
KUNO: 53/1971
KVIH: 50/2017
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 52/1994
KJLN: 53/1943
KUNO: 54/1994
KVIH: 54/1994
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH
FIRE WEATHER...WISE
CLIMATE...NELSON
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