914
FXUS63 KSGF 190541
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SOME RECORDS
APPROACHED (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM TODAY AS A WARM
AND VERY DRY AIR MASS COMBINES WITH GUSTY WINDS TO CREATE
CONDITIONS CAPABLE OF QUICKLY SPREADING FIRES.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCE TRENDS ARE DECREASING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY (20-25% CHANCES, DOWN FROM 30-50%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
AN ENERGETIC PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH A FAST 130-140+
KT JET STREAM STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THROUGH THE
OZARKS, AND ACROSS DELAWARE/NEW JERSEY. IN MID-LEVEL WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY, A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY CAN BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH
THE BACKGROUND FLOW. THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE IS A MID- AND
UPPER- LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY
UNDERNEATH THE LOW ALOFT, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, AND INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT, IT'S MORE OF A
DRY FRONT THAN A COLD FRONT AS DEWPOINTS AND ASSOCIATED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
CLIMBING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, GETTING CLOSE TO SOME RECORD
HIGHS FOR THE DAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S, WITH HIGHS ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
(SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RECORDS).
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL KICKOFF A RELATIVELY DEEP 996 SURFACE LOW OVER EAST
KANSAS. RAP MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME BRIEF MOISTURE RETURN IN
THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MILD TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER
50S.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM THURSDAY:
DESPITE THE BRIEF MOISTURE RETURN, THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE QUICK TO TRAVERSE NORTHEASTWARD
THURSDAY MORNING. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FIRST,
WHICH WILL QUICKLY AND SHARPLY TANK DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY,
BUT KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
SURFACE AND BALLOON OBSERVATIONS SEEN TODAY REVEAL VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT, WHICH HAS BEEN MIXING TO THE SURFACE WITH RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15-25%, EVEN BELOW 15% ATOP RIDGES LIKE IN BRANSON.
GIVEN THIS REGIME, THE FORECAST IS BEING NUDGED TOWARD THE
DRIER-BIASED MODELS LIKE THE HRRR/RAP/RRFS WITH A CONTINUED
FORECAST OF 15-25% RHS, AND PERHAPS LESS THAN 15% IN LOCALIZED
SPOTS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A VERY TALL AND WELL- MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER, EFFICIENTLY BRINGING DOWN WIND ENERGY FROM ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. AS SUCH, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE
GREATEST WINDS (20-25 MPH) ARE EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES OF POTENTIALLY BELOW 15% ARE
EXPECTED. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO, SPC HAS ISSUED AN
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65. FOR HISTORICAL CONTEXT, WE USUALLY GET 1-2 ELEVATED
OUTLOOKS IN THE YEAR, WITH LESS THAN 1 CRITICAL OUTLOOKS IN THE
YEAR. THEREFORE, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
THAT SAID, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE
CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING
BELOW 25%. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS, WITH
10-20 MPH SPEEDS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT
SREF PLUME SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WHICH WOULD MAKE UP FOR THE DECREASED
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IMPACT-WISE. ADDITIONALLY, THE REFS IS MORE
BULLISH THAN THE HREF WITH A 70-80% CHANCE OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS SOUTHEAST OF I-44 (HREF IS LOWER AT 15-40%, THOUGH IT
INCLUDES MORE MOIST-BIASED MODELS).
SO IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN VERY QUICK
FIRE SPREAD WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, BUT SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD
SEE QUICK FIRE SPREAD EAST OF THAT AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG
SOUTHERN ASPECTS NEAR THE RIDGE TOPS.
LOW 15-30% CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING:
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THURSDAY MORNING. WITH STRONG
FORCING MOVING THROUGH WITH THE DRYLINE, THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. HOWEVER, HREF
SOUNDINGS REVEAL VERY DRY AIR ALOFT, SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FORM SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE (LESS THAN A 15-30% CHANCE).
THE MAXIMUM HREF MEMBER BRINGS 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65, SO ANY SHOWER THAT DOES FORM COULD HAVE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHTNING AS WELL. OVERALL, THOUGH THE THREAT LEVEL IS
MINIMAL, AND MUCH OF ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SHOULD STAY EAST
OF THE AREA.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT THEN SURGES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING, BRINGING LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
COOLER, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND:
FOLLOWING THE MAIN WAVE PASSAGE, A VERY STRONG 160+ KT ZONAL JET
STREAK IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION. THE JET WILL BE
MOSTLY ZONAL WITH ONLY MARGINAL WIGGLES IN THE FLOW BEFORE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING IN COOLER, NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S, DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MO
TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
20-25% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY:
A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GLOBAL AND MEDIUM-
RANGE HAVE BEEN HAVING A BIT OF TROUBLE RESOLVING THE NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE 00Z RUNS WERE AT
30-50%, BUT WITH THE 12Z RUNS, THAT HAS DROPPED TO 20-25% AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS FLATTENED OUT A BIT AND THE MOISTURE LOOKS
TO BE LOCKED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS, SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES COULD QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (15-25% CHANCE). LITTLE
TO NO QPF IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE VARIABLES
LISTED BEFORE.
WARMING TREND RETURNS AFTER MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK:
LREF GLOBAL ENSEMBLES BRING BACK LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA
AFTER MONDAY, WHICH WILL INITIATE ANOTHER WARMING TREND BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL. NBM INTERQUARTILE SPREADS ARE ACTUALLY QUITE THIN
FOR BEING IN THE 5-7 DAY TIMEFRAME, SHOWING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TUESDAY, WARMING TO THE 60S
WEDNESDAY. LOWS LOOK TO WARM FROM THE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER, NO IMPACT TO AVIATION ARE ANTICIPATED WITH REGARDS TO
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WHAT MAY BE IMPACTFUL REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS. EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ARE FOR EARLY
MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 5 TO 10KTS TO INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10 TO
15KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20-25KTS. BY THE AFTERNOON, SURFACE
WOUNDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY IN DIRECTION AND INCREASE
WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 KTS. ADDITIONALLY, A SHORT PERIOD
AROUND SUNRISE, FROM 10Z TO 12Z WILL SEE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IMPACT THE REGION AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE OZARKS.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO CALM ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AT 5-10 MPH AS THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH TODAY. THAT SAID, MOISTURE HAS BEEN A BIT SLOW
TO EXIT THE EASTERN OZARKS AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, BUT DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
15-25% AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE REGION.
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI BORDER AND IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EVEN HAVE A 10-40% CHANCE TO SEE BELOW 15% RHS
THIS AFTERNOON, INDEED, BRANSON HAS OBSERVED SUB-15% RHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10 MPH, WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
A BRIEF MOISTENING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, THOUGH, A
DRYLINE-COLD FRONT COMBO WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION, QUICKLY DRYING
OUT THE AREA AGAIN TO 15-25% ACROSS THE REGION (ONCE AGAIN, BELOW
15% IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 (10-40% CHANCE)).
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGES, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL INTRODUCE THE THREAT FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NOON TO 8 PM THURSDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THAT
SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH, HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WHICH WOULD COMPENSATE FOR LOWER SUSTAINED WINDS. THAT
SAID, THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR GREATER THAN RED FLAG CRITERIA
IS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
SPC FIRE OUTLOOK IS IN PLACE DUE TO THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20-25 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM
10-20%.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 63
(15-30% CHANCE), BUT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SHOULD STAY EAST
OF THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 75/2017
KJLN: 78/2017
KVIH: 76/2017
KUNO: 73/1981
RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 52/1994
KJLN: 53/1943
KUNO: 54/1994
KVIH: 54/1994
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
101.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...HATCH
FIRE WEATHER...PRICE
CLIMATE...PRICE
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