140
FXUS63 KSGF 192319
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
519 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SOME RECORDS
APPROACHED (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM TODAY AS A WARM
AND VERY DRY AIR MASS COMBINES WITH GUSTY WINDS TO CREATE
CONDITIONS CAPABLE OF QUICKLY SPREADING FIRES.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW(15-30%) FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN WARMING BACK
INTO THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
UPPER ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE MOVED IN
BEHIND A DRYLINE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH SO FAR IN
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE
WINDS, RH VALUES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE 20S AND 30S SO FAR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S AS OF MIDDAY.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE GUSTY WIND OF 30 TO 40 MPH CONTINUING AND
RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A SLOW RECOVERY THIS EVENING. THE VERY DRY AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE ANY FIRES TO RAPIDLY SPREAD AND A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. HUMIDITY LEVELS ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE 50S-60S OVERNIGHT, BUT THE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH
THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE
MID 20S IN THE WEST TO THE LOW 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY: ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID
50S SOUTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS DO DIP BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY LIKE TODAY
WHICH SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN THE LIMITED CATEGORY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY: SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL
LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COMPARED
WITH THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW END(15-30%)
WITH LITTLE TO NO QPF. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK: BEHIND THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE, WE GET INTO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AS A
RIDGE OUT WEST BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRAW A
COLDER AIR MASS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTH, WHILE LOWS BY SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS DIPPING INTO THE
20S AND 30S WITH SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDWEEK: RISING HEIGHTS AND LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOT
REDUCTIONS TO FLIGHT CATEGORY ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 75/2017
KJLN: 78/2017
KVIH: 76/2017
KUNO: 73/1981
RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 52/1994
KJLN: 53/1943
KUNO: 54/1994
KVIH: 54/1994
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-
101.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...DIDIO
CLIMATE...PRICE
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