496
FXUS63 KSGF 201754
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS
EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN WARMING BACK INTO THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG (150KT) UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
ROCKIES. A STRONG, NEARLY OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WITH A TRAILING FRONT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURING IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SURFACE TEMPS 40 DEGREES COLDER THAN
ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO. GUSTY WEST WINDS WERE CONTINUING HOWEVER
THEY WERE TRENDING DOWN AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX TONIGHT: GIVEN THE CONTINUED
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
SLIDE EAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE LIFT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS. HREF MEAN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN MOST CASES
HOWEVER RH BELOW 850MB IS LOW. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR SNOW HOWEVER SURFACE
TEMPS MAY REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 WILL BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER LIFT AND MAY HAVE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL TO ACTUALLY SEEING THAT LIGHT
RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX. LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND NBM KEEPS
PRECIP CHANCES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
MOISTURE THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT SEEING
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY: AFTER THE LAST FEW
DAYS OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS, HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE BELOW AVERAGE. MEAN 850MB TEMPS CLOSER TO 0C WILL KEEP HIGHS
DOWN INTO THE 40S, ESPECIALLY WITH LATE DAY CLOUDS TODAY AND
PARTLY CLOUDS SKIES SATURDAY. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER MAY REACH 50 TODAY BEFORE THE CLOUDS
RETURN. LOW TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ARE LIKELY TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
WARMING UP: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY WITH A 1040MB SURFACE HIGH AXIS BUILDING INTO THE
AREA FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED BELOW
AVERAGE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS. LATEST NBM HAS A 70-95% CHANCE OF
TEMPS IN THE TEENS MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS THEN SHOWS A GENERAL
PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RETURN/INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS.
ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE BY THURSDAY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD PROVIDE
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME. THEREFORE, GIVEN THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RAINFALL DEFICITS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA, EXACERBATING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES
MAY BE OBSERVED TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...TITUS
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