465
FXUS63 KSGF 211113
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
513 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
- COOLER CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN WARMING BACK INTO
THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KANSAS.
THIS INCOMING LIFT, COMBINED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS.
THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING DID SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT
THEREFORE IT HAS TAKEN SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS.
100-200J/KG OF MU CAPE WAS PRESENT FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO
NORTHERN AR THEREFORE SOME SLEET SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED DOWN THERE FROM TIME TO TIME.
THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE WAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR WITH MOST OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
LIGHT WINTRY MIX THROUGH THIS MORNING: LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA, STRONG
LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS WITH POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT SLEET SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WE HAVE NUDGED UP PRECIP CHANCES EVER SO
SLIGHTLY HOWEVER GIVEN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING, STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS LIGHT PRECIP COULD
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME LATE DAY SUNSHINE RETURNS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY: GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND NORTHERLY WINDS, HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE LIKELY. COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES, LOWS WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. ON SUNDAY, NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH. MEAN 850MB TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE -5 TO -8C RANGE AND EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE,
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S. MANY LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 WILL MOST LIKELY NOT REACH 40
DEGREES ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET UP AN EVEN COLDER SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE 1042MB SURFACE HIGH MOVES DOWN INTO
IOWA. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING
CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
COLD DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN STRUGGLING TO REACH
40 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
WARMING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A PATTERN
CHANGE BACK TO A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RETURN/INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR
AT LEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLES STILL DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS TYPICALLY DO
NOT HAVE ALOT OF MOISTURE AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RAIN
CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT OR LESS. GIVEN THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RAINFALL DEFICITS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, EXACERBATING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE AROUND 6KFT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT SGF EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD
HOWEVER WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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