032
FXUS63 KSGF 220834
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND BREEZY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THIS MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA AS 40KT 850MB FLOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN
THE 20S. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AS
THE STRONGER 850MB FLOW MOVES IN WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.
COLD TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY: EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY, MEAN
850MB TEMPS IN THE -5 TO -8C RANGE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW
AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 MAY REACH 40. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS HOWEVER WITH CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY
FALL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS LIKELY. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS MAY EVEN REACH THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS. MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 0
TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY
WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 30S. LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF
SPRINGFIELD MAY SEE LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
INCREASING TEMPERATURES: INCREASING HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE BACK INTO THE 5-8C RANGE AND LATEST NBM DATA SHOWS
SMALL TEMP SPREADS TUESDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER
60S. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30MPH AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER
AIR ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BOOST HIGHS EVEN
FURTHER INTO THE 60S. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH WOULD PROVIDE FORCING FOR PRECIP.
MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE IN QUESTION AND GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK LIGHT WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE 20-50% RANGE. WARMER AIR ALOFT
LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS RETURNING AND RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 22-25KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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