623
FXUS63 KSGF 100445
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80. POTENTIAL
FOR RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD 80-100% THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
PRIMARY HAZARD IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- COOLER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-WEEK, WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A DRIER STRETCH OF
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA HOWEVER
THERE WAS A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA. A CUT OFF LOW
WAS STILL SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WAS BRINGING IN VERY WARM AIR WITH THE 12Z KSGF SOUNDING
MEASURING A 850MB TEMP OF 17C WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MARCH. THIS WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO ESTABLISH A CAPPING
INVERSION WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE WEAK VORT MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA DOES HAVE
SOME CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-44 HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON WERE ALREADY IN THE 70S
WITH DEWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WERE ALSO OCCURING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 30MPH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL/NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY: WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING LEFT, TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A LOCATION OR TWO TOUCHING 80
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND COMBINED WITH
A STEADY SOUTH WIND, TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE (LOWER 60S). THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A VERY WARM/NEAR
RECORD DAY ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND VERY WARM. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
IN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH COULD TIE OR
BREAK SOME RECORDS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE
NUMBERS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLOODING POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY: A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE SHOWING
ITSELF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT ONLY DOES THE UPPER LOW EJECT OUT
INTO OK/TX, BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THEREFORE TWO MAIN SOURCES OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA. A SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO SET UP FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY TUESDAY EVENING. A DRY
LINE THEN WILL SET UP ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO TEXAS.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA EVEN INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. THE HRW NSSL AND HRW ARW DO
SHOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TRYING TO FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TUESDAY EVENING HOWEVER THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURING GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING/STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION.
OF GREATER CONFIDENCE IS THAT THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM FOCUS FROM 6PM TO 12AM. ONE AREA WILL BE ALONG THE
FRONT FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH
ALL HAZARDS (TORNADOES, VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS).
LATEST HREF PAINTBALL PLOTS SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA HOWEVER WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ST CLAIR, BENTON AND
MORGAN COUNTIES FOR ANY STORMS TO CLIP THESE AREAS. THE OTHER
AREA OF STORM FOCUS WILL BE STORMS THAT CAN CONGEAL OFF THE DRY
LINE AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THESE ARE THE STORMS THAT MAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF REACHING SOUTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AND TIME OF DAY IS ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT. BOTTOM LINE, THERE REMAINS A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA HOWEVER IT REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON WHICH IF ANY ROUND
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA OR IF WE JUST GET STUCK IN BETWEEN. THIS
ALSO IMPACTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE LATEST HREF AND NBM ARE
HIGHLIGHTING A DECREASING TREND IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS BACK INTO
THE 0.25 TO LOCALLY 1 INCH RANGE. CURRENTLY THE AREA TO WATCH
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD
WHERE/IF THAT ACTIVITY MOVES UP FROM OK/AR. LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF ITS HEAVY ENOUGH. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST TRENDS AND UPDATE PRECIP CHANCE
FORECASTS WITH INCOMING DATA.
COOLER WEDNESDAY THEN DRY/WARM TO END THE WEEK: COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH EARLY
MORNING HIGHS THEN FALLING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN DEVELOPS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS SLOWLY CLIMBING EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEKEND: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN AND POTENTIALLY
CENTRAL US BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD SEND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOUTHWEST LLWS AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE IMPROVING TO AROUND 5000 FEET
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS DEPICTED WITH
THE PROB30 GROUP AFTER 00Z. MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WOULD
ACCOMPANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9:
KSGF: 81/1974
KJLN: 81/2017
KVIH: 78/1974
MARCH 10:
KSGF: 80/1955
KJLN: 82/1972
KVIH: 85/1955
KUNO: 82/1995
MARCH 14:
KSGF: 82/1971
KJLN: 80/2002
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...PEREZ
CLIMATE...BURCHFIELD
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