985
FXUS63 KSGF 101045
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
545 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. POTENTIAL FOR
RECORD HIGHS.
- WIDESPREAD 80-100% SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. PRIMARY HAZARD IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- COOLER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-WEEK, WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A DRIER STRETCH OF
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY, WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THIS MORNING:
BROAD ZONAL FLOW IS TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW BUILDS OUT OF BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WAVE OF
ENERGY WILL BE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION, WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
EARLY THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, SEEING AN AREA OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MO. THIS FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THIS
MORNING, CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ANOMOUSLY WARM.
THIS AFTERNOON:
BY THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTY SOUTH-SOTHWEST WINDS RAMP BACK UP OVER
THE AREA. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 TO 30 MPH, WITH
OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. ADDITIONALLY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSTANTIAL WARM AIR ALOFT (850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 16 TO 18 C). THIS WARM AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN
A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE IMPENDING SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON, AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE, MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE ABSENCE OF A
LIFTING/FORCING MECHANISM WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS APPEARS
TO BE THE STORYLINE FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF FORCING MECHANISMS. THIS COULD VERY
WELL LEAVE OUR AREA IN BETWEEN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THIS EVENING-TONIGHT:
A COMPLEX SCENARIO REMAINS INTACT FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH FORCING TO THE NORTH ALONG A COLD FRONT AND TO THE
SOUTH ALONG A DRY LINE. HREF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY
(MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG) AND SHEAR (0-6 KM 30 TO 40 KNOTS)
PRESENT. HOWEVER, THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION LOOKS TO INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA. THIS BRINGS US BACK AROUND TO THE TWO
AREAS OF FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING, AND
THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR US. THE FIRST AREA OF FOCUS IS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST SUITE OF CAMS.
HREF PAINTBALL PLOTS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO TONIGHT, PERHAPS CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS WOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FORT
SCOTT TO NEVADA TO OSAGE BEACH. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE,
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW TO MEDIUM, WITH THE A POTENTIAL SHIFT
NORTH OR SOUTH STILL PLAUSIBLE. EXPECTED STORM MODE WOULD BE
SUPERCELLS TO CLUSTERS/SEGMENTS AS IT GROWS UPSCALE. THE PRIMARY
RISK WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH SECONDARY RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. MEANWHILE, THE SECOND AREA OF
FOCUS ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MUCH OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY THAT CONGEALS OFF THE DRY
LINE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS
WOULD INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO GLANCE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI, ALONG THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS
BORDER, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THESE TWO FOCUS AREAS FOR
EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCUR DURING A WINDOW BETWEEN
6PM TO 12AM. A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, THOUGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
OUR AREA REALIZING THIS POTENTIAL IS LIMITED AND CONDITIONAL IN
NATURE.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING:
AS THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATE THROUGH THE PLAINS, THE
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY
FURTHER WORK AGAINST THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, WITH RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE CAM OUTPUT ALONG THE PASSAGE.
WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SWEEPING THROUGH, CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN THE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL. HREF PMM DEPICTS A
FEW STRIPS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
REMAINING UNDER A HALF INCH NOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY
FOR ANY TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WHERE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY:
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. CLEARING CLOUDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THURSDAY-SATURDAY:
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AS WE PROGRESS INTO LATE
THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP US DRIER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SUBTLE HEIGHT
RISES NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S.
SUNDAY-MONDAY:
THE DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN WITH A TROUGH DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN
CHANGE BRINGS APPRECIABLE POPS (30-60%) BY SUNDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. ADDITIONALLY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
COLDER AIR LINGERS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY. FURTHERMORE, OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
DROP WELL INTO THE 20S. THE NBM WOULD SUGGEST THIS COLD SHOT IS
LIMITED TO A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
FORECAST FOR UPDATES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH MID-MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. SOUTHWEST LLWS AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS
DISSIPATES BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, GUSTY SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS. RAIN CHANCES
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THIS EVENING, AS DEPICTED WITH THE
PROB30 GROUP AFTER 03/04Z. MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT CEILINGS REDUCED AS LOW AS 2500 FEET IN ADDITION TO
VISIBILITIES AROUND 2 TO 4 MILES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10:
KSGF: 80/1955
KJLN: 82/1972
KVIH: 85/1955
KUNO: 82/1995
MARCH 14:
KSGF: 82/1971
KJLN: 80/2002
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
CLIMATE...PEREZ
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