925
FXUS63 KSGF 111127
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 60-90% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LOW POTENTIAL OF A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN OZARK, HOWELL,
SHANNON, AND OREGON COUNTIES BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND INTO
THE WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- 40-70% PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY, WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
MISSOURI AS OF 2 AM. FOR THE MOST PART, THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
SUB-SEVERE, THOUGH SOME AREAS ALONG THE LINE HAVE BEEN NOTED TO
SURGE OUT, DROP OBSERVED 50-60 MPH GUSTS, THEN WEAKEN AGAIN.
THESE STORMS ARE OCCURING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER TX THAT
IS CURRENTLY MERGING WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE BUT ENERGETIC POLAR
LONGWAVE NOTED OVER ND/SD/NE. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DRIVING
THEMSELVES AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS OBSERVED TO STRETCH
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KS, THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL MO, AND INTO
NORTHERN IL.
LINE OF STORMS TO EXIT THE AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT:
EXPECT THE STRENGTHENING/WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE STORMS CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA BY 6-8 AM.
OUR 04Z SOUNDING DEPICTED SUBSTANTIAL MLCIN (>100 J/KG) WHICH
SEEMS TO BE STUNTING INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LINE. OUR VAD
SHOWS VERY STRONG 40+ KTS OF 0-1/0-3 KM SHEAR, WHICH HAS LED TO
SOME MESOVORT TYPE STRUCTURES ALONG THE LINE, BUT ULTIMATELY THE
MLCIN SEEMS TO KEEP FROM ANYTHING MORE SEVERE FROM SPINNING UP.
THAT SAID, IF ANY STORM IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE INHIBITION, THE
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND A SPIN-UP TORNADO OR TWO. THIS
THREAT WILL END AS THE LINE EXITS THE AREA AT 6-8 AM.
ADDITIONAL 60-90% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING:
AT AROUND THE SAME TIME (6-8 AM), THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK RESIDUAL INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A 60-90% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SOME BECOMING THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY, BUT RESIDUAL 0-6 KM EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AT 30-40
KTS ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
BRING SOME SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH IMMEDIATELY
WITH THE COLD FRONT.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT:
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS
WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 50 TO 65 F. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID-40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT THEN LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE POLAR WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY,
BRINGING THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH THROUGH OUR
REGION IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING, BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS THURSDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON, RENEWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO THE GULF AT THIS POINT, SO WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE, BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN. THIS WILL
BRING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO THE 25-30%
RANGE. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44 WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH. HOWEVER, WITH OUR RECENT
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND HIGH SOIL SATURATION, NOT EXPECTING FUELS
TO BE VERY RECEPTIVE TO THE CONDITIONS, LIMITING MUCH OF THE
CONCERNS.
LOWS ARE THEN FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
WARMING TREND COMES BACK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY:
GLOBAL MODELS BRING THROUGH A DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT BEFORE THIS OCCURS, CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. AS THE POLAR JET IS
EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTH FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD FRONT, WINDS
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO SOUTHERLY, ADVECTING IN EVEN WARMER AIR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
40-70% PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE:
LREF CLUSTERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP,
ENERGETIC MERIDIONAL TROUGH TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY, BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SURGE SOUTHWARD WITH IT.
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED
WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 50S. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
AND MARGINALLY MOIST AIR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AIDED
BY 8-9+ C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES) WILL PRODUCE WEAK MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG AS NOTED BY GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT. THIS
WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE CRASHING COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI
WHERE FORCING IS BETTER TOWARDS THE SURFACE LOW (40-70% CHANCE).
A LOOK AT LREF CLUSTER JOINT PROBABILITIES FOR >500 J/KG MUCAPE;
>35 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR; AND >0.01" QPF REVEALS A 20-30%
CHANCE OF ACHIEVING THOSE INGREDIENTS. GIVEN THE ADDED STRONG
DYNAMICS OF THE FRONT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A QUICK
THIN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT BRINGS AT LEAST SUB-
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE TRENDS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
LOOKING WINDY SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONT:
THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. ISALLOBARIC FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
WINDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH, BUT THE NBM PRESENTS A
20-30% CHANCE FOR WINDS GUSTS >40 MPH. THIS MAY ALSO PRESENT A
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IF THE WINDS OVERLAP WITH DRIER AIR, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT FRONTAL TIMING PRECLUDES ANY CONSIDERABLE
MENTION WITH THIS FORECAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING COLD FRONT:
WITH SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
QUITE CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL TANK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS
MONDAY ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
A WARMING TREND WILL BE QUICK TO FOLLOW, THOUGH, DUE TO THE VERY
COMPACT AND MERIDIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE 50S TUESDAY AND THE
60S TO LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THIS FRONT WILL SHARPLY SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT
WINDS TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY 15-20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO 5-10 KTS AFTER
01-03Z.
THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 13-19Z. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
THE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TOO LOW POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE
THUNDER MENTION IN THE TAFS.
ALSO WITH THE FROPA, CIGS WILL DECREASE TO IFR. OBSERVATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DO SHOW CIGS AT 800 FT, SO EXPECT THESE TO
FILTER INTO THE TAF SITES AS OUTLINED IN THE TAF. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION IN HOW LONG IFR CIGS HOLD. THERE IS A 25-50% CHANCE
THEY LAST UNTIL 20-22Z WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH AT
LEAST 01-03Z. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR AFTER 01-03Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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