318
FXUS63 KSGF 111818
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
118 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. A DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- 40-70% PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY, WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
LOW TO MID LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA.
WEAK RESIDUAL INSTABILITY HAS LED TO LIGHT SHOWERS AND SOME
DRIZZLE ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING AN
ADDITIONAL TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN
SINCE 7AM THIS MORNING. SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA,
PRIMARILY IN OREGON COUNTY, HOWEVER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY REMAINED
LIMITED, AND ANY CONVECTION REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. THE CLOUD
COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND COLD FRONT HAVE HELPED KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONABLE, WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A
LARGE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF 1PM, AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
I-44 SHOWCASE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WITH AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF I-44 IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. ADDITIONALLY, BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH- NORTHWEST, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20MPH PERIODICALLY GUSTING UP TO 20-30MPH.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
SETTLED OVER THE AREA, LEADING TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THE NBM INTERQUARTILE SPREAD SHOWS A
5-DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER
COULD REACH 60.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DRY AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
DROPPING HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25-30% RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-20MPH
GUSTING UP TO 20-30MPH. AS A RESULT, ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO
SATURATED SOILS, FUELS MAY NOT BE VERY RECEPTIVE TO THESE
CONDITIONS, WHICH COULD LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S (ALONG/NORTH OF HWY
60) TO THE UPPER 60S (SOUTH OF HWY 60) ON FRIDAY, WARMING UP TO THE
LOW TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION,
HOWEVER THERE'S STILL SOME TIMING AND TRACK UNCERTAINTIES LEADING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY. LOOKING AT
ENSEMBLE MEMBER LOW PLACEMENTS, THERE SEEMS TO BE TWO POTENTIAL
TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES. A MORE NORTHERN TRACK DURING THE
DAYTIME (I.E. THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA)
WOULD LEAD TO RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE (WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL), WHEREAS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK
(I.E. TRACKING ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER UP THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA) COULD LEAD TO MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIXED PRECIPITATION
EVENT. THE MORE PROBABLE SOLUTION WOULD BE THE NORTHERN TRACK
WITH RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ANY WINTRY PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. THE CAVEAT TO THAT WOULD BE RELATED
TO TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH
DURING THE DAY, HOWEVER ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
(<25% PROBABILITY) AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO GET A BETTER IDEA
ON THE EXACT DETAILS.
THE POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT, THEREFORE CAUSING GUSTY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-25MPH
GUSTING UP TO 30- 40MPH. NBM PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS >40MPH
CURRENTLY SITS AT 30- 40%, SO WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
POTENTIAL UPTICKS IN WINDS. ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON PRECIPITATION/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM - NAMELY IF
THE STRONGER WINDS CAN MATCH UP WITH THE DRIER AIR.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, A RIDGING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SET UP
OVER THE PLAINS, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A GENERAL WARMING
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE CPC DAY 8-14 OUTLOOK DEPICTS
TEMPERATURES LEANING ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
WITH IT STILL BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THERE'S STILL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WARM WE CAN GET TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER NBM PERCENTILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH
HAS LED TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GUSTING UP TO 25-30KTS, AND MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES, CLOUD COVER WILL
IMPROVE, RAISING FLIGHT CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR AROUND 00Z-01Z.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
GENERALLY AFTER 03Z-05Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
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