200
FXUS63 KSGF 121707
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1207 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE.
- WARMING TREND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A DRIER STRETCH
OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 50-80% CHANCE FOR A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL EXISTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
- THEN, 30-50% CHANCES FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN, BRINGING 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS
WITH IT.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S MONDAY WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
AS OBSERVED BY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS REACHED THE GULF IN TEXAS,
THEN STRETCHING ALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS COLD
FRONT HAS BROUGHT CURRENT TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S WITH
LOWS ON TRACK TO MEET THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. ALOFT, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH OUR AREA. ON THE UPSTREAM
SIDE OF THE AXIS, 150-160 KT JET STREAK IS NOSING INTO
WASHINGTON AND MONTANA, WHICH IS FORCING A SURFACE LOW JUST
NORTH OF THE STATE OF WASHINGTON.
ELEVATED FIRE *WEATHER* CONDITIONS TODAY, BUT FUELS REMAIN DAMP:
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED JET
STREAK IN THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL ZOOM INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, BRINGING WITH IT THE QUICKLY MOVING, BUT DYNAMICALLY
POTENT, CLIPPER SYSTEM ALSO THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL REACH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA, INCREASING WIND SPEEDS TO 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH NORTH OF I-44, AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MO/KS BORDER WHERE TERRAIN INDUCES LESS FRICTION. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND, MODESTLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY.
THE RISING TEMPERATURES AND REMAINING DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE
20-30% RANGE (SOME AREAS ATOP RIDGES MAY DROP BELOW 20%).
WHILE THIS MEETS ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-44 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MO/KS
BORDER, RECENT RAINFALL HAS KEPT FUELS IN THE 15-20% RANGE. NOW,
THIS IS DOWN FROM 20-30% LAST NIGHT, BUT STILL DAMP ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY LIMIT OVERALL CONCERN. FUELS WILL BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE MORNING TO SEE HOW THEY REACT TO THE DRYING AIR MASS
AND WINDIER CONDITIONS BEFORE EXPLICITLY MESSAGING WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND:
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL STAY NORTH OF
THE AREA, BUT THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE MO/AR BORDER FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
RANGE OF HIGHS FROM AROUND 70 F ALONG THE BORDER, TO AROUND 60 F
IN WEST-CENTRAL MO. LOWS WILL THEN BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE
40S.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WARMER AIR
SATURDAY, BRINGING HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
50-80% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY:
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR A VERY ENERGETIC
AND AMPLIFIED WAVE TO DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. MASS
RESPONSE AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS PROGGED TO BRING 50-55 F DEWPOINTS
TO THE REGION BEFORE THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND ATTENDING
TROUGH PUSH THROUGH. THE MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A 50-80% CHANCE
OF RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.
GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TRENDS ARE STARTING TO SIGNAL FOR A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TROUGH PASSAGE WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE NEGATIVE
TILT OF THE WAVE. WHILE THE CONTROLS ARE STARTING TO SIGNAL
THIS, ONLY ~42% OF THE LREF MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NEGATIVE TILT. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT, GREATER MASS
RESPONSE COULD ADVECT A NARROW BAND OF "JUST-IN-TIME MOISTURE"
WITH DEWPOINTS NEARING 60 F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD
CREATE 250-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. WITH AN ENERGETIC TROUGH, 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WILL EASILY REACH ABOVE 35-40 KTS. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE
WIND GUST RISK. GIVEN THE CRASHING COLD FRONT, SHOWERS/STORMS
WOULD LIKELY PEAK IN A THIN LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BRINGING
MAINLY A WIND THREAT OF 50-60 MPH GUSTS. THE MOST APPRECIABLE
THREAT LOOKS TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO CONVERGE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS IN THIS
LOCATION. THE SPC HAS OUTLINED THIS AREA ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A 15% CONTOUR. BASED ON THIS PLACEMENT, ANY WIGGLES IN
TIMING OF THE FRONT OR AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE COULD MEAN MORE
AREAS GET ADDED TO THE RISK, OR AREAS GET TRIMMED FROM THE RISK.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR A MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
AND/OR A SLOWER FRONT PROGRESSION WHICH WOULD BOTH INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN MORE OF OUR AREA SUNDAY.
30-40+ MPH WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT:
SINCE THIS WILL BE A VERY STRONG WAVE AND SURFACE CYCLONE,
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH CURRENT
FORECASTS BRINGING 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND 30-40 MPH GUSTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT NBM RUN, WITH CURRENT
PROBABILITIES GIVING A 30-50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS >40 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA, AND A 25-35% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS >45 MPH
ALONG THE I-49 CORRIDOR. THAT GIVES A 25-35% CHANCE FOR A WIND
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED ALONG THE I-49 CORRIDOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT.
30-50% CHANCES FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE VERY EDGES OF THE BACKSIDE PRECIPITATION SHIELD/DEFORMATION
BAND WILL THEN CLIP OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOOK AT
DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS SUGGESTS THIS WILL ALL BE SNOW AS COLD
AIR IS QUICKLY USHERED IN. HOWEVER, LREF CLUSTER EXAMINATION
DOES SHOW SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SYSTEM TIMING/POSITION,
WHICH INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. THAT
SAID, THE MAIN LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, SO ANY
PRECIPITATION (30-50% CHANCES) WOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT, AND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S SUNDAY, ANY SNOWFALL WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT
FROM THE WARM GROUND, LIMITING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO MIDDLE 20S WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. SPRINGFIELD HAS A CURRENT FORECAST OF 39 F, BUT THE
25TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO EVEN
BE NEAR AROUND 34 F. EITHER WAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
QUICKLY WARMING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK:
FEAR NOT! THE COMPACT AND MERIDIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MEANS THAT ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS, HEIGHTS WILL
BE QUICK TO RISE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE THE MIDDLE 40S TO UPPER 50S
TUESDAY, AND THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS LOOK TO
WARM FROM THE LOWER 30S AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER
40S AND LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AND BEYOND. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECAILLY THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO
THE WEST THEN THE NORTHWEST. NO RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT,
JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...WISE
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