892
FXUS63 KSGF 122341
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE.
- WARMING TREND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A DRIER STRETCH
OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 50-80% CHANCE FOR A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL EXISTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
- THEN, 30-50% CHANCES FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN, BRINGING 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS
WITH IT.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S MONDAY WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TIGHTENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOW MOVES EAST TODAY. AS
THIS OCCURS, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
AT TIMES WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40MPH MAINLY THIS EVENING, WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
A DRY AIR MASS IS ALSO IN PLACE WITH RH VALUES OF 20 TO 30%
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS
OCCUR. RH WILL SLOWLY RECOVER THIS EVENING, BUT WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS.
THE THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON FRIDAY, AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO NO RAIN WILL OCCUR JUST AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES, JUST A SHIFT IN WINDS AS HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
60S ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS RH VALUES
DROP TO 20 TO 30% AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE TEENS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY THEN THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED
INITIALLY BUT WILL START TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND THIS
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP, THERE COULD BE A SEVERE RISK ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. IF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE
FASTER, INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
BETTER SEVERE WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT AND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE
QUITE GUSTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 35
TO 45MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A
COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA WITH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP
AROUND THE LOW INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI. AS THE COLDER AIR MASS ADVECTS, SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY EVENING LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 30S AND 20S.
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WRAP AROUND SNOW AS SOME MODELS KEEP THE SNOW
MORE TO THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY WARM
INTO THE 30S AND LOWS DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RETURN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR 50-60 KTS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, SUSTAINED UP TO 20 KTS AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS,
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE. AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY, THEY WILL
WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO TURN CLOCKWISE BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...NELSON
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