046
FXUS63 KSGF 131656
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
- LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. SEVERE WIND
GUST POTENTIAL EXISTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS
IN THE 30S WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING, SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLANS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE OZARKS. WINDS
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WERE
GUSTING FROM 20 TO 30 KTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK.
A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST AND FALLING OFF TO
LESS THAN 10 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
WEAKENING WINDS HOWEVER, FIRE SPREAD WILL BE LIMITED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY SLIDING OVER THE REGION
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
ALLOWING FOR HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD
GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES ON SATURDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TIGHTENS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
REGIONS WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
ALIGNMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE OZARKS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS, TOUGH THE TRACK OF THE LOW HAS SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES. THE THING THAT REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT
HOWEVER IS THE POLAR AIRMASS THAT WILL BRING A RETURN OF WINTER
TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY, WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION HOWEVER.
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND TIMING OF THE FRONT, CHANGES THE
POTENTIAL STORM STRENGTH WILL OCCUR. IF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE
SLOWER, INSTABILITY MAY BE HIGHER AND ALLOW FOR A LIMITED
SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. IF THE
FRONT IS A LITTLE FASTER, INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, A CONTINUED TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT
OF THE NORTH AND POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGIONS COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE OZARKS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
INSISTENT IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THIS OCCURS. WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES, ANY SNOW THAT WOULD
FALL AS THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO FROZEN WOULD MOST
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. TIMING WOULD
LIKELY BE SUNDAY EVENING INTO NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-50% CHANCE FOR AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE OZARKS, FROM HIGHWAY 54 NORTH. STILL
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK, SOME ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH TO THE
ARKANSAS LINE.
IN ADDITION TO THE COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BRINING GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45MPH POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. THIS BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE 30S.
MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL THEN AGAIN DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...WISE
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