445
FXUS63 KSGF 131913
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
213 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT (2 OUT OF 5) TO ENHANCED (3 OUT OF 5) RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY
RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LOW TORNADO RISK ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS
IN THE 30S WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
A WEAK FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT IMPACTED BY THE FRONT AS HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70S THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH RH VALUES OF 20 TO 30%. WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOWS COOL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY THEN EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS IOWA ON SUNDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40MPH OCCUR. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. INSTABILITY
WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAY REMAIN CAPPED.
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF I-49 SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE CAP WILL
START TO WEAKEN AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
LINE, AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER INCREASING EAST OF HIGHWAY 63. THE
LINE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW LEVEL
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 AND THE WIND RISK COULD INCREASE. THIS LINE
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF
THE FRONT HAS NOT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY AND THE
LINE OF STORMS CAN GET ORGANIZED THERE COULD BE A LOW SPIN UP
TORNADO RISK WITHIN THE LINE WITH ANY SURGES TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
BEHIND THE FRONT A COLDER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DROP FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 60MPH AT TIMES. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES IN THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN
END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER SNOW POTENTIAL
WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65, BUT SNOW FLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW WITH
LOCALLY 1-2". GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH THE WARM
WEATHER RECENTLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S SUNDAY EVENING. WHERE ANY MODERATE BANDS OF
SNOW CAN DEVELOP THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SNOW TO MELT
THEN FREEZE AS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
COULD RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
SNOW AND WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES WITH IN THE BAND OF MODERATE
SNOW.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO MONDAY
MORNING. HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLDER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LEVELS AS THE ENSEMBLE MODEL
MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE
70S WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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