740
FXUS63 KSGF 140819
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT (2 OUT OF 5) TO ENHANCED (3 OUT OF 5) RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY
RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A LOW TORNADO RISK ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING BEHIND COLD FRONT/STORMS, WITH SNOW LINGERING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE TEENS
WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WAS ALLOWING FOR DRY FLOW FROM EASTERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST AND A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MOVES EAST THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BY THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
OCCUR AT TIMES AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MILD CONDITIONS THANKS TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEN COOL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE OZARKS. IN
ADVANCE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT, WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE OZARKS
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS IOWA ON SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE FRONT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION AND WILL
DEPEND OF THE SPEED AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
INDICATES MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
CAPE, HOWEVER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER HIGH THANKS TO A STRONG 40-60KT
LLJ THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL
90-110KT JET MAX WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT AS IT
MOVES OVER THE REGION, ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
WITH THE INITIAL CAP IN PLACE, LIMITED INSTABILITY, AND TIMING
CONCERNS, EXPECTATIONS REMAIN THAT THE BEST AREAS FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 63 SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AS DOWNDRAFTS FROM
PRECIPITATION LOADING COMBINE WITH SYNOPTIC WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WINDS THAT MAY BE IN EXCESS OF 60 TO
70MPH IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, IF THEY DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY,
WITH AMPLE SHEAR, ISOLATED QLCS TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHERE THE LINE-NORMAL SHEAR COMPONENT BECOMES FAVORABLE
FOR SPIN UPS. AGAIN, THIS ALL HINGES ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE OZARKS BY SUNDAY
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RUSH IN TO
FILL THE VOID WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S AFTERNOON HIGHS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, TO THE UPPER 20S
BY MIDNIGHT. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE OZARKS BY
40 TO 50 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONS WHEN
SYNOPTIC WINDS GUST AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION FROM THE UPPER LOW AND FRONT,
TO SNOW FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE GENERALLY BEST ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65, BUT SNOW FLAKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY 1-2". WITH GROUND
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WARM FROM THE RECENT WARM WEATHER,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL INITIALLY BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER, WHERE ANY
MODERATE BANDS OF SNOW CAN DEVELOP, THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THE SNOW TO MELT THEN REFREEZE AS THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS RESULTING FLASH FREEZE
MIGHT CAUSE SLICK SPOTS, ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING SNOW, WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES WITH ANY BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS MONDAY MORNING WITH NEAR-RECORD
READINGS POSSIBLE (SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION). WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND ZERO MONDAY MORNING THANKS TO CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH MORNING LOWS AGAIN IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES, PUTTING RECORDS IN JEOPARDY AGAIN FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
THE COLDER WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 70S BY MIDWEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. A FEW MODEL 90TH PERCENTILE OUTPUTS FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND
EVEN HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THIS WOULD
SEND THE OZARKS FROM WINTER TO SUMMER IN ONE WEEK. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY
A FEW MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EASTERLY FROM 5 TO 10MPH BUT WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY INTO THIS
EVENING.
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO THE KJLN
AND KBBG TERMINALS AFTER 03Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER
TEMPERATURES TO THE OZARKS FOR MONDAY (MARCH 16) AND
TUESDAY (MARCH 17) MORNINGS. FOR SOME LOCATIONS, MORNINGS LOWS
MAY FALL TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON
EARLY BLOOMING VEGETATION THANKS TO A WARM PREVIOUS TWO WEEK
PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. OF
THE PAST 13 DAYS, 10 HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 16:
KSGF: 16/1895
KJLN: 19/1988
KVIH: 14/1900
KUNO: 16/1988
MARCH 17:
KSGF: 13/1900
KJLN: 16/1906
KVIH: 8/1900
KUNO: 18/1958
RECORD LOW HIGHS:
MARCH 16:
KUNO: 32/1970
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH
CLIMATE...HATCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page