052
FXUS63 KSGF 141958
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT (2 OUT OF 5) TO ENHANCED (3 OUT OF 5) RISK
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A QUICK MOVING LINE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A LOW
RISK FOR A QUICK SPIN UP ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL MISSOURI.
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
- LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY EVENING, WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI. A FEW SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE TEENS
WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY SETTLING EAST OF THE AREA
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR WARMER WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THIS BRIEF STRETCH OF DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE
HORIZON WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
SUNDAY-MONDAY:
BY SUNDAY MORNING, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING LOW
TRANSLATING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACH OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES (MIDDLE
60S) IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE
CAN BE EXPECTED, THOUGH NOT OVERWHELMINGLY IMPRESSIVE. THIS CAN
BE GLEANED FROM DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF MOISTURE CAN BE CAPTURED FROM
MODEL SOUNDINGS, DEPICTING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NUDGING INTO
THE AREA. THIS MAY PLAY A FACTOR IN THE REALIZED INSTABILITY AS
A FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
FEATURING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION
TO THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
THE LOW WILL SUPPORT 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH SUNDAY. LASTLY,
THIS SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A SHOT OF WINTER WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS.
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS:
INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MARGINAL AT BEST
WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HREF DEPICT MUCAPE AROUND
250-750 J/KG. AS THE STRONG FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA, AN
EXISTING CAP WILL QUICKLY BE ERODED AND GIVEAWAY TO A THIN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS WANT TO INITIALIZE THIS
ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR NEAR NOON, WITH "BETTER"
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. THIS CAN BE BETTER
CHARACTERIZED BY SPCS DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK, WHERE A SLIGHT (2 OF
5) RISK TRANSITIONS TO AN ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK. THIS ALIGNS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 63 CORRIDOR. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH
THIS STRONGLY FORCED THIN LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUST AROUND
60 TO 70 MPH. A MUCH LOWER THREAT FOR A QUICK SPIN UP ALONG THE
LINE, THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST.
OVERALL, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA, WITH THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT
ALIGNING TO THE EAST. THE TIMEFRAME FOR THE LINE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 12 TO 6 PM. MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR
UPDATES AS MESOSCALE DETAILS UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS:
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS, BOTH PRE-
AND POST-FRONTAL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH, BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
STRONG GUSTS OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONG WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN STRONG GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN PUT INTO A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINTER WEATHER AND COLD:
AS THE FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
THERE COULD BE SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE THAT SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST LESS
MOISTURE, AND THUS LESS SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL
PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED OFF SINCE THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
PACKAGE, WITH CENTRAL MISSOURI THE PRIMARY LOCATION FOR SEEING
MEASURABLE AND IMPACTFUL SNOW AMOUNTS. THIS IS WHERE
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ARE 40 TO 60 PERCENT, WITH
GREATER THAN ONE INCH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THIS SUPPORTS THE
STORYLINE OF LIGHT AMOUNTS AT BEST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI, WITH A
FEW SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.
FURTHERMORE, A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS A RESULT OF FLASH FREEZE
CANNOT BE RULED GIVEN THE RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
GUSTY WINDS MAY WORK AGAINST THE FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL, QUICKLY
DRYING PAVEMENTS. FOR THE TIME BEING, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (UP TO A HALF
INCH OR LESS) ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, WITH A FEW SLICK SPOTS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PARTICULARLY,
UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES/OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK.
BLOWING SNOW HAS BECOME LESS OF CONCERN, THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD
OR TWO OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES REMAINS PLAUSIBLE.
THIS TURNS ATTENTION TO THE ANOMALOUS COLD TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, LINGERING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS AROUND 0. THE AREA
STRUGGLES TO WARM MUCH MORE THAN LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE TEENS. THOSE IN THE AGRICULTURE
COMMUNITY SHOULD PLAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO SENSITIVE CROPS/EARLY
BLOOMING. ADDITIONALLY, MAKE SURE TO NOT BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY
THE BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE COLDER WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 70S BY MIDWEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. A FEW MODEL 90TH PERCENTILE OUTPUTS FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND
EVEN HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THIS WOULD
SEND THE OZARKS FROM WINTER TO SUMMER IN ONE WEEK. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE ON SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LLWS
AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. AS
A FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS CAPTURED WITH THE LATEST PROB30 GROUP
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER
TEMPERATURES TO THE OZARKS FOR MONDAY (MARCH 16) AND
TUESDAY (MARCH 17) MORNINGS. FOR SOME LOCATIONS, MORNINGS LOWS
MAY FALL TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON
EARLY BLOOMING VEGETATION THANKS TO A WARM PREVIOUS TWO WEEK
PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. OF
THE PAST 13 DAYS, 10 HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 16:
KSGF: 16/1895
KJLN: 19/1988
KVIH: 14/1900
KUNO: 16/1988
MARCH 17:
KSGF: 13/1900
KJLN: 16/1906
KVIH: 8/1900
KUNO: 18/1958
RECORD LOW HIGHS:
MARCH 16:
KUNO: 32/1970
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
CLIMATE...HATCH
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