866
FXUS63 KSGF 151847
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
147 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT (2 OF 5) TO ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. PRIMARY RISKS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70
MPH, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
- LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, WITH ANY
ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS A HALF INCH OR LESS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.
A FEW SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE TEENS
WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THIS AFTERNOON:
OBSERVATIONS CAPTURE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS QUICKLY STRENGTHENING IN NORTHEAST MO.
IN THE UPPER-LEVELS, A TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A STRONG DYNAMIC SYSTEM. STRONG FORCING
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE EROSION OF AN
EXISTING CAP, AS CAPTURED IN THE LATEST KSGF 17 UTC SOUNDING.
FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THIS SOUNDING DEPICTS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, WITH OBSERVED DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 65 VICINITY. AS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIFT EAST OF HIGHWAY 65, THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG NUDGES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS, OR HIGHWAY 63
AND EAST. THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR, GENERALLY FROM NOW THROUGH 6 OR 7 PM.
THIS ALIGNS WITH THE LATEST SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS. A
SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK EXTENDS FROM HIGHWAY 65 TO HIGHWAY 63
CORRIDOR, WITH AN ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
MO. THE PRIMARY THREAT ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH
AND A FEW SPIN UP TORNADOES. HAIL REMAINS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
LACK OF FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADDITION TO STORM
MODE BEING LINEAR IN NATURE COMPARED TO SINGLE/MULTI CELL
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH REGARDS TO THE TORNADO RISK, THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALIGN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL MO. THIS IS WHERE LOW- LEVEL CAPE INCREASES TO
AROUND 100 J/KG IN ADDITION TO LINE NORMAL 0-3 KM SHEAR AROUND
40 TO 45 KNOTS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY BOWING SEGMENTS TO PRODUCE A QLCS
TORNADO OR TWO. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR ACTIVITY AS IT
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST OF OUR AREA AND TAPS INTO BETTER MOISTURE EARLY
THIS EVENING. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON
THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES UNFOLD.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO FEATURE GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, NORTHWEST WINDS RAMP UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH,
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 40 TO 50 MPH. THIS CAN
BE GLEANED FROM THE LATEST MOMONTEUM TRANSFER ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. FOR THIS REASON, A WIND ADVISORY COVERS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE OTHER TWO FACETS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
AND ANOMALOUS COLD TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST CAMS STILL SUGGEST A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW, PERHAPS MODERATE AT TIMES, TO SWEEP THROUGH
WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. THIS BAND IS BEGINNING TO COME
TOGETHER AS WE SPEAK ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE LATEST TIMING WOULD
SUGGEST BETWEEN 5 TO 9 PM FOR THIS LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE THROUGH,
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. WHILE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MELTING, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR BRIEF PERIODS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH THE FALLING SNOW. FURTHERMORE, WET
PAVEMENT MAY BE AT RISK FOR FLASH FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS, A FEW
SLICK SPOTS REMAIN PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE RAPID DROP IN
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
A LIGHT DUSTING TO A HALF INCH ARE ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND
LOCATIONS NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44, A LIGHT SNOW
MAY MIX WITH RAIN BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE OTHER HEADLINE, BITTER COLD AHEAD THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK. LOWS TONIGHT ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY MORNING, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE. HOWEVER, STILL LOOKING AT WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH, SUPPORTING WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO.
THE AREA STRUGGLES TO WARM OUT OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID-
MARCH. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT AHEAD INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN. THOSE IN THE AGRICULTURE COMMUNITY
SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO SENSITIVE CROPS/EARLY BLOOMING.
ADDITIONALLY, MAKE SURE TO NOT BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE BRIEF
RETURN OF WINTER AND TAKE THE PROPER PRECUATIONS. POTENTIAL
RECORD LOWS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, CHECK OUT THE
CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
TUESDAY-SATURDAY:
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID-WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE. HIGHS TUESDAY TOP OUT IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S (FAR
SOUTHWEST MO). ENSEMBLES DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO MID-WEEK, WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, PUTTING US 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MID- MARCH. THIS WILL BE QUIET THE CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS
DAYS/NIGHTS EARLY WEEK.
NBM INTERQUARTILE TEMPERATURE SPREADS REMAIN 20 TO 25 DEGREES,
THOUGH ALL ABOVE NORMAL. FOR INSTANCE HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ARE PROGGED TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S (25TH PERCENTILE) TO MIDDLE/UPPER 80S (75TH PERCENTILE).
FOR THE TIME BEING, FORECASTING HIGHS LEAN TOWARDS THE 50TH
PERCENTILE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, TO EVEN LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS WARM WEATHER
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER, WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A STRONG SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS FOR KBBG AND KSGF.
MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY WITH
REDUCED CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 3000 FEET IN ADDITION TO
VISIBILITIES AROUND 4 TO 6 MILES AT TIMES. A LIGHT SNOW BAND
THEN SWEEPS THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS TO TAFS AT KJLN AND KSGF. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED OVER THE COURSE OF 1 TO 3 HOURS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT QUICKLY BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 TO 40 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS LINGER INTO TONIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING ON
MONDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER
TEMPERATURES TO THE OZARKS FOR MONDAY (MARCH 16) AND
TUESDAY (MARCH 17) MORNINGS. FOR SOME LOCATIONS, MORNINGS LOWS
MAY FALL TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON
EARLY BLOOMING VEGETATION THANKS TO A WARM PREVIOUS TWO WEEK
PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. OF
THE PAST 13 DAYS, 10 HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 16:
KSGF: 16/1895
KJLN: 19/1988
KVIH: 14/1900
KUNO: 16/1988
MARCH 17:
KSGF: 13/1900
KJLN: 16/1906
KVIH: 8/1900
KUNO: 18/1958
RECORD LOW HIGHS:
MARCH 16:
KUNO: 32/1970
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
CLIMATE...PEREZ
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