380
FXUS63 KSGF 161106
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
606 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM WITH GUSTS UP TO
45-50 MPH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 MPH / GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH BY TONIGHT.
- FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN SLICK
CONDITIONS CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES.
- NEAR-RECORD LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL BRING MORNING WIND CHILLS
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS MORNING AND DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
RHS DROPPING TO 20-30% IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER RISK REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BY
MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A 70-99%
CHANCE OF HIGHS >80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE TROUGH ALOFT, WITH A
NEUTRALLY-ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS STRAIGHT N-S THROUGH THE
PLAINS. A 987MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREATER CHICAGOLAND
AREA, WITH A COMPETING 1035MB HIGH OVER THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED CLOSED LOWS IN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVELS, BUT THE UPPER-
LEVELS HAVE YET TO CATCH UP, SO THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS AND
LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES.
A FEW REMNANT BANDS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
AS OF 3AM LOCAL TIME, DEVELOPING PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWEST UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW AND SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT OF THE CYCLONE FLOWING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI, WHICH IS WORKING TO ERODE THE REMAINING LIGHT SNOW BANDS.
TODAY:
WIND:
THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW HAS
CAUSED A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH, WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH, BUT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO
40-50 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7AM. AFTER THAT, GUSTS WILL START
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, BUT EXPECT TODAY TO REMAIN
BREEZY, WITH WINDS DROPPING TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH
BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES (COLD):
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND SUNDAY'S
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS TO START THE
MORNING, AND THE 20-30 MPH+ WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES
TO FALL TO NEAR-ZERO OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE INCOMING DRY AIR WILL
ERODE OUR CLOUD COVER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, AND IF SKIES
CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING, THAT COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.
FLASH FREEZE RISK FOR MORNING COMMUTE:
WITH THE RAPID DROP TO SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE
PRECIPITATION SEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ANY WET ROADWAYS ARE AT
RISK OF FLASH FREEZING OVERNIGHT. BE MINDFUL OF BLACK ICE AND
SLICK ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES/BRIDGES, DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FIRE WEATHER:
I'VE HIT THE GUSTY WINDS ALREADY, BUT THE POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR
WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS, EVEN
GOING NEGATIVE IN AREAS WEST OF HWY 65/SPRINGFIELD (40-50%
CHANCE OF TD <- 5) AND AS A RESULT, MINIMUM RHS 20-30% WILL BE
COMMON. JOINT PROBABILITY OF REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA (RH<25%,
WIND>20MPH) IS 40- 75% IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR FROM JOPLIN TO SPRINGFIELD. POTENTIALLY WET FUELS WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
(ALTHOUGH WE DO USUALLY ALSO WANT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE 30S). IT'S ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT
CLEAR SKIES MIGHT ALLOW FOR NOT ONLY WARMER/"OVERACHIEVING"
TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO "UNDERACHIEVING" DEW POINTS AND AN
ADDITIONAL BOOST TO ALREADY GUSTY WINDS FROM DAYTIME MIXING.
KEEP IN MIND THE LOCAL RULE OF THUMB: RH = WINDS MEANS PROBLEMS
FOR INEXPERIENCED BURNERS.
TUESDAY:
TEMPERATURES (STILL COLD, BUT GETTING WARMER):
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO MONDAY
(TEENS) AND WIND CHILLS STILL AS LOW AS 5-15 DEGREES. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE ARCTIC CHILL FOR THE WEEK, AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT AND BEGINS ADVECTING WARMER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY, WHICH WILL BEGIN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND
AS UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS THEN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL MO:
AS A WARM FRONT BLOOMS AND SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION, IT WILL RUN INTO A SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH AND A LITTLE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS LIKELY WILL NOT MEAN MUCH TO US, WITH THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR PRECIP BEING FAR NORTH OF US. ENSEMBLE QPF
FOOTPRINTS DO NOT SUGGEST MEASURABLE PRECIP IN OUR AREA, BUT
THEY DO SHOW A DISTINCT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EURO MEMBERS AND
THE GEFS/CANADIAN MEMBERS. THE BULK MAJORITY OF THE EURO MEMBERS
FAVOR A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI, WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GEFS MEMBERS FAVOR
A DRIER, MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION. THIS LANDS US AT AN ENSEMBLE
MEAN OF 10-30% POPS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS VARIABILITY.
FIRE WEATHER:
ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY LIKELY TO UNFOLD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH AFTERNOON RHS AGAIN IN 20-30% RANGE. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON, THE COINCIDENT
WARM AIR ADVECTION MEANS OVERALL RHS WILL STAY LOW. WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH, CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND OVERALL MIXING A LITTLE BIT, BUT A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE GULF MEANS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH
TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
WARMING TREND:
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AS A REALLY
IMPRESSIVE RIDGING REGIME BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE CONUS.
NUMEROUS RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN IN THE WESTERN US
(SOME PLACES HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 100 DEGREES OUT WEST), AND
WE MAY BE BREAKING RECORDS TOO BY THIS WEEKEND ONCE THE RIDGE
BUILDS DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
15-25 DEGREES COMPARED TO THE DAY BEFORE EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
THROUGH THURSDAY. EFI/SHIFT OF TAILS INDICATES THAT THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UNUSUALLY EXTREME TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
NORMAL MID-MARCH CONDITIONS, ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY. NBM GIVES A 25-75% CHANCE FOR FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI SEEING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 85 DEGREES ON SATURDAY, AND
WHILE INTERQUARTILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD STARTS TO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH THAT SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST IN THE UPPER 70S, IF NOT LOW 80S.
FIRE WEATHER:
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE 40S MIDWEEK, THE
COINCIDENT TEMPERATURE INCREASES WILL KEEP RHS LOW (25-35%)
THROUGH FRIDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY-
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CONTINGENT ON WIND SPEEDS, BUT IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE DRY ALL WEEK, SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND:
AFTER TUESDAY'S LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS, THE REST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. THE NEXT CHANCE AT A PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS
TO COME SATURDAY OR SUNDAY, BUT ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT WHAT THIS WILL LOOK LIKE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH
THE DAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STARTS
PUSHING IN. LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
TAF SITES, AND VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER
TEMPERATURES TO THE OZARKS FOR MONDAY (MARCH 16) AND
TUESDAY (MARCH 17) MORNINGS. FOR SOME LOCATIONS, MORNINGS LOWS
MAY FALL TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON
EARLY BLOOMING VEGETATION THANKS TO A WARM PREVIOUS TWO WEEK
PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. OF
THE PAST 13 DAYS, 10 HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 16:
KSGF: 16/1895
KJLN: 19/1988
KVIH: 14/1900
KUNO: 16/1988
MARCH 17:
KSGF: 13/1900
KJLN: 16/1906
KVIH: 8/1900
KUNO: 18/1958
RECORD LOW HIGHS:
MARCH 16:
KUNO: 32/1970
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 19:
KUNO: 81/1969
MARCH 21:
KSGF: 88/1916
KJLN: 91/1907
KVIH: 85/1904
KUNO: 79/2011
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...CAMDEN
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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