530
FXUS63 KSGF 301033
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
533 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TUESDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30-40% RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH TODAY.
- A LARGE WARM UP OCCURS AGAIN TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND FEATURING DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH WINDS TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. SUNNY SKIES AND A WARM AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE TODAY AS HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS, SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40%
RANGE WITH SOME UPPER 20% POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN OZARKS. THESE
DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE RISK THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL START TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI ON TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE DAY. THE WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN
ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH AGAIN. THE DRY AIR
MASS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLACE AS RH VALUES DROP TO 30 TO 40% IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME UPPER 20% POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
OZARKS. THESE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL START TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI BUT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH IS IN
QUESTION, THEY MAY MAINLY REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54,
BUT IF THEY CAN GET A COLD POOL THEY COULD MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED SO NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL PUSH THE FRONT MORE TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST
INTO THE AREA MAYBE AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH HAIL AND WIND THE
MAIN RISK. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
EAST THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE EAST AND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, AND THERE COULD AGAIN
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE ROUNDS OF
RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE
STRONGEST FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MONDAY MARCH 30:
KSGF: 82/1963 FORECAST: 84
KJLN: 84/1904 FORECAST: 84
KVIH: 80/1978 FORECAST: 84
KUNO: 82/1968 FORECAST: 82
TUESDAY MARCH 31:
KSGF: 87/1974 FORECAST: 83
KVIH: 84/2010 FORECAST: 83
KUNO: 85/1981 FORECAST: 83
RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
TUESDAY MARCH 31:
KSGF: 62/1967 FORECAST: 63
KJLN: 65/1967 FORECAST: 66
KVIH: 61/1967 FORECAST: 64
KUNO: 58/1967 FORECAST: 60
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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