772
FXUS63 KSGF 310510
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR POTENTIALLY ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- NEAR-RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY.
- AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
NEAR-FULL INSOLATION AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
850-HPA TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO FLIRT WITH DAILY RECORDS.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING, RH VALUES SHOULD
CONTINUE FALLING TO AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MO RESULTING SUPPORTING AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
TONIGHT, PREVENTING APPRECIABLE DECOUPLING AND COOLING WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID-60S F, SETTING THE STAGE
FOR POTENTIALLY BREAKING MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON TUESDAY.
A SIMILAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY, WITH THE NET
EFFECT OF A WARM START AND PERIODS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIMITING
INSOLATION RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO TODAY AND AGAIN
THREATENING DAILY RECORDS. SOME CAMS ALSO INDICATE THAT THESE MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION) DURING THE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT WEAK FORCING AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SUGGESTS
THAT PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THESE FACTORS ALSO
ADD SOME NUANCE TO THE RH FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, WHICH HAS
IMPLICATIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER, GIVEN THAT BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THAT BEING SAID,
CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RH FALLING
LOW ENOUGH TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) OUTSIDE
OF SPORADIC INSTANCES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF MO TUESDAY NIGHT, A DEVELOPING
NOCTURNAL LLJ AND SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY REACH THE CWA SINCE THE
CAPPING INVERSION AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP THEM ON THE
FRONT'S COOL (NORTH) SIDE AND CAMS/SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON
WHETHER THE FRONT ITSELF CAN MANAGE TO REACH WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL MO COUNTIES BEFORE STALLING AND LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS,
TAPERING QUICKLY FROM 70 TO 30 PERCENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
A MORE ACTIVE AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SEVERAL TROUGHS EJECTED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRUCTURE, TRACK, AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE
TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED MOVEMENTS OF A FRONT, BUT ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MAXIMA
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY. THESE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIODS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REFINED AS GUIDANCE COMES IN BETTER ALIGNMENT.
THIS PATTERN ALSO POSES AT LEAST A LOW THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. MORE SPECIFICALLY, THIS THREAT COMES AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KS/SOUTHWESTERN MO
WITH SUPPORT FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE AREA JUST
BEFORE OR DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER
LOWER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT. MACHINE-
LEARNING AND ANALOG GUIDANCE ALSO HIGHLIGHT THURSDAY AND, MORESO,
FRIDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN SUFFICIENTLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING SINCE
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY. THE THREAT WOULD
THEORETICALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS DEEPER GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE ARRIVES AND INITIAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE A CHANCE TO PRECONDITION SOILS FOR SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF 1"+ TOTAL RAINFALL (THROUGH SATURDAY) ARE 60 TO 90
PERCENT ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA, WITH 20 TO 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES OF 2"+ GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-44.
WITH THE WAVERING FRONT AND WAVES OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, THERE
IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WHAT EXACT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THE ENTIRE NBM TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION REMAINS
WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY AND TUESDAY.
DUE TO VARIABILITY IN THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY, THAT DAY HAS THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH NBM
INTERQUARTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGES SPANNING NEARLY 15 F. A
SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY RESIDE ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI, COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED
AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TODAY AND STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54,
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
TUESDAY MARCH 31:
KSGF: 87/1974
KVIH: 84/2010
KUNO: 85/1981
RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
TUESDAY MARCH 31:
KSGF: 62/1967
KJLN: 65/1967
KVIH: 61/1967
KUNO: 58/1967
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...00
LONG TERM...00
AVIATION...WISE
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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