414
FXUS63 KSGF 311737
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR POTENTIALLY ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- NEAR-RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A MARGINAL (1 OUT 5)
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND A SLIGHT (2 OUT
5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEST OF I-49 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ROUND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL AGAIN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF UNCAPPED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS UNCAPPED MUCAPE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
INTO MID DAY, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH BASED AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
A WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND HIGHS WILL AGAIN
WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF I-44,
WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA, BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO REACH THE EASTERN OZARKS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 25 TO 45%
RANGE WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS WITH
RH INCREASING TO THE WEST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TODAY, AS THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
COMBINE.
A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCAPE WILL INCREASE AND
THE CAP WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS SHOW THE BETTER
INSTABILITY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT THE CAP WILL
WEAKEN TO NEAR THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR BUT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THE BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH HAIL THE MAIN RISK.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, EITHER OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND LIFT THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH
WILL ALSO LIFT THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY,
WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH THE OVERALL BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
AGAIN BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OFF TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.
AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST A DRY LINE WILL MOVE EAST AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA
BUT THE CAP WILL WEAKEN WEST OF I-49 WEDNESDAY EVENING A FEW
STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
RISK. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS SO THERE COULD ALSO BE A TORNADO
RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL ALSO REMAIN FURTHER WEST, SO COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED
THIS FAR EAST AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD OVERALL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOP WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FRONT AGAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST BUT IT IS POSSIBLE A COLD
POOL DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND A CLUSTER OR LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING VERY HIGH THETA-E VALUES SO A STRONG COLD POOL
MAY NOT DEVELOP SO MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP. THERE
WILL AGAIN BE THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
RISK. IF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT A SPIN UP TORNADO RISK WITH ANY LINE SURGES TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST. AGAIN THE COLD POOL MAY REMAIN WEAK.
THE SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HEIGHT FALLS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, BUT CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. IF THE COLD POOL REMAINS
WEAK AND COVERAGE OF STORMS IS LESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A LINE
OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND THERE COULD BE A RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK, WITH AN ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL RISK. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SPIN UP TORNADO RISK WITH ANY LINE SURGES TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. IF MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THIS RISK WILL BE LIMITED.
THE MAIN SEVERE RISK WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST, SO STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE MOVE EAST
OF HIGHWAY 65. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATER
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY, BUT IF THE
FRONT REMAINS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE EVENING HOURS, SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 80S AGAIN. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LIFT SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE FRONT SO DECENT COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY FAST SO ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED IN NATURE WITH THIS ROUND. IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE FRONT COULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY SATURDAY, A FEW MODELS ARE A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
WINDOW ASIDE WHERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOPS. STRONG SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UPWARD OF 30 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT MAINLY AT KJLN AND
KSGF WHERE THIS THREAT IS COVERED BY A PROB30, SHOULD A SITE
EXPERIENCE CONVECTION, A BRIEF REDUCTION IN CATEGORY IS LIKELY
WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNRISE BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP AROUND 14Z-15Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...00
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