075
FXUS63 KSGF 311905
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR POTENTIALLY ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- NEAR-RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A MARGINAL (1 OUT 5)
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND A SLIGHT (2 OUT
5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEST OF I-49 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ROUND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TO THE NORTH, A SERIES
OF SURFACE WAVES WITH TRAILING COLD FRONTS EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOCALLY, THE REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR, WIDESPREAD STRONG
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL, WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAT
DID NOT SEE MORNING CONVECTION. LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE
SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY LIFT FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BEFORE
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNRISE. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA,
WHERE THE SPC HAS A DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
AS THE REGION IS RE-ESTABLISHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A SURFACE
WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THIS EVOLUTION WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SPC HAS
PLACED THE CWA UNDER A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK, WITH A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK
CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. ALL CONVECTIVE HAZARDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.
THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SAGGING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF REPRIEVE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT RETREATS. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
MORE POTENT COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH A ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST
PART OF THE PERIOD BEGINS, WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST INTO THE
REGION AND THIS WILL USHER A COLD FRONT INTO MISSOURI. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY ON
THE POPS FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE BASED ON THE VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES SYSTEMS THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR AT LEAST MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED
OUT IN COMING FORECAST PACKAGES AND WITH HELP FROM CAMS. IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD BE REALIZED,
BUT OVERALL THE PARAMETER SPACE IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS
SEEMS TO LINE UP WITH SPCS MARGINAL RISK FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
THE CWA ON THURSDAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN A SURFACE
LOW AND THIS HELPS TO A TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THIS WILL GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA, WHERE NBM PROBS OF GREATER THAN 30 MPH
GUST ARE AROUND 70 PERCENT. THIS WILL ALSO SURGE AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE SHORTWAVE AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL AID
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (GENERALLY 80-90
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN) ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF FOR HEAVIER RAIN IN THE
ENSEMBLES GIVEN THE PLUME OF PWATS AND CONVECTION. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS IT WILL DEPEND ON ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE
AI AND MACHINE LEARNING DATA IS ALSO SHOWING SOME SIGNAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS, BUT TIMING FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE A
BIT OFF. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH TOWARD THE AREA AND THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COLD FRONT EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS TO
ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTERNOON HIGHS SURGE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
WINDOW ASIDE WHERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOPS. STRONG SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UPWARD OF 30 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT MAINLY AT KJLN AND
KSGF WHERE THIS THREAT IS COVERED BY A PROB30, SHOULD A SITE
EXPERIENCE CONVECTION, A BRIEF REDUCTION IN CATEGORY IS LIKELY
WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNRISE BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP AROUND 14Z-15Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...VORST
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