098
FXUS63 KSGF 012041
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
341 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS BETWEEN 4PM AND MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS IF
SEVERE STORMS FORM. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE FOR TORNADOES,
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF SPRINGFIELD NEAR THE FRONT.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A NEVADA TO VERSAILLES LINE. 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
WILL BE COMMON IN THIS AREA WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3-5
INCHES. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE
INCH.
- WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY EVENING HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS (SOME SEVERE) ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD CAUSE
FROST TO FORM IF WINDS ARE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 12Z KSGF
SOUNDING EXHIBITED A WEAKLY CAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
HOWEVER WIND SHEAR REMAINED LOW (30KTS OR LESS). A STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH LOW
80S ALONG THE ARKANSAS BORDER. GIVEN THE WEAK CAP, SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AT TIMES TODAY HOWEVER STORM ORGANIZATION
HAS REMAINED POOR WITH MESSY CLUSTERS/PULSE LIKE QUALITIES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT: MESOANALYSIS AND
FORECASTS DOES SHOW STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND THEREFORE HIGHER
WIND SHEAR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MID TO LATE EVENING SUGGEST WIND SHEAR
CLOSER TO 40KTS WITH ML CAPE AROUND 1000J/KG. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS. GIVEN THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED ON THE
FRONT. THIS COULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL HELICITY ENOUGH FOR A
TORNADIC THREAT HOWEVER ITS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL/UNCERTAIN.
ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS TO WATCH WILL BE AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL FORM IN MORE OF A NORTH TO SOUTH (LINEAR) FASHION
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 10PM AND MAINLY AFFECT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-49. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
ARE ALL POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES
IN. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE STORMS
MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE WEAKENS IT SUBSTANTIALLY. WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.
FLOODING POTENTIAL: THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL (DUE TO REPEATED STORMS) WILL OCCUR
JUST NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS
1-2 INCHES COMMON/MEAN WITH POCKETS OF 3-5 INCHES IN A VERY
NARROW CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THIS CORRIDOR IS HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND COULD SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH.
THEREFORE LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEVADA TO VERSAILLES
LINE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THIS AREA AND WE HAVE INCLUDED THEM
IN A FLOOD WATCH THAT RUNS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOUTH OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
BAND, MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME AREAS OF
SOUTH OF I-44 SEEING VERY LITTLE RAINFALL (LESS THAN 0.25IN).
NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS: THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THE WESTERN AREAS
LOOKS TO SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFERS SUGGEST 40-45MPH WIND GUSTS
AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65. WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THIS THREAT.
SEVERE POTENTIAL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALONG THE FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER A FEW CAMS
DO SHOW STORMS TRYING TO FORM EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 AND THEN
INTENSIFYING AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY: A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL ALSO SWEEP
THROUGH THE PLAINS, FORCING AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE TO FORM TO
OUR WEST AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT (POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT).
LATEST CAPE/SHEAR COMBO PROBS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH A
DAMAGING WIND AND SPINUP/QLCS TORNADO THREAT. THEREFORE WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOLER TEMPS/FROST POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS: A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST NBM HAS A 30-50% (LOW TO MODERATE) CHANCE OF
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 36 DEGREES BOTH THOSE MORNINGS THEREFORE WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST FORMATION IF WINDS ARE LIGHT
ENOUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
OVERALL A LOW CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORM THUNDERSTORM TAF FORECAST
SINCE THERE WILL BE ISOLATED, POP UP STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WE
WENT THE PROB30 ROUTE FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND EXPECT
ADDITIONAL AMENDMENTS TODAY/TONIGHT. THE BBG AREA HAS THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT. DURING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS, CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
(CEILINGS AND VIS). SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUST AT TIMES
HOWEVER THE HIGHER GUSTS 20-35KTS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT THE SITES THURSDAY MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055-056-066-067.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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