162
FXUS63 KSGF 020524
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1224 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING. IS
A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL THIS
ACTIVITY.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEVADA TO VERSAILLES LINE. 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE COMMON IN THIS AREA WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH WILL SEE
LESS THAN ONE INCH.
- WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EAST OF HIGHWAY 63, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS LOW.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS (SOME SEVERE) ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD CAUSE
FROST TO FORM IF WINDS ARE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 12Z KSGF
SOUNDING EXHIBITED A WEAKLY CAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
HOWEVER WIND SHEAR REMAINED LOW (30KTS OR LESS). A STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS ALONG AND PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH LOW
80S ALONG THE ARKANSAS BORDER. GIVEN THE WEAK CAP, SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AT TIMES TODAY HOWEVER STORM ORGANIZATION
HAS REMAINED POOR WITH MESSY CLUSTERS/PULSE LIKE QUALITIES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT: MESOANALYSIS AND
FORECASTS DOES SHOW STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND THEREFORE HIGHER
WIND SHEAR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MID TO LATE EVENING SUGGEST WIND SHEAR
CLOSER TO 40KTS WITH ML CAPE AROUND 1000J/KG. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS. GIVEN THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED ON THE
FRONT. THIS COULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL HELICITY ENOUGH FOR A
TORNADIC THREAT HOWEVER ITS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL/UNCERTAIN.
ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS TO WATCH WILL BE AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL FORM IN MORE OF A NORTH TO SOUTH (LINEAR) FASHION
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 10PM AND MAINLY AFFECT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-49. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
ARE ALL POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES
IN. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE STORMS
MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE WEAKENS IT SUBSTANTIALLY. WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.
FLOODING POTENTIAL: THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL (DUE TO REPEATED STORMS) WILL OCCUR
JUST NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS
1-2 INCHES COMMON/MEAN WITH POCKETS OF 3-5 INCHES IN A VERY
NARROW CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THIS CORRIDOR IS HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND COULD SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH.
THEREFORE LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEVADA TO VERSAILLES
LINE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THIS AREA AND WE HAVE INCLUDED THEM
IN A FLOOD WATCH THAT RUNS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOUTH OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
BAND, MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME AREAS OF
SOUTH OF I-44 SEEING VERY LITTLE RAINFALL (LESS THAN 0.25IN).
NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS: THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THE WESTERN AREAS
LOOKS TO SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFERS SUGGEST 40-45MPH WIND GUSTS
AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65. WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THIS THREAT.
SEVERE POTENTIAL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALONG THE FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER A FEW CAMS
DO SHOW STORMS TRYING TO FORM EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 AND THEN
INTENSIFYING AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY: A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL ALSO SWEEP
THROUGH THE PLAINS, FORCING AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE TO FORM TO
OUR WEST AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT (POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT).
LATEST CAPE/SHEAR COMBO PROBS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH A
DAMAGING WIND AND SPINUP/QLCS TORNADO THREAT. THEREFORE WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOLER TEMPS/FROST POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS: A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST NBM HAS A 30-50% (LOW TO MODERATE) CHANCE OF
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 36 DEGREES BOTH THOSE MORNINGS THEREFORE WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST FORMATION IF WINDS ARE LIGHT
ENOUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY EAST OF THE THE
TAF SITES COVERAGE IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTER WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WEAKEN BY THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055-056-066-067.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...WISE
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