738
FXUS63 KSGF 020825
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK WITH THIS MORNING ACTIVITY.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEVADA TO VERSAILLES LINE WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THIS
MORNING.
- WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF HIGHWAY 65, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS LOW.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS (SOME SEVERE) ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRANSON TO ROLLA MISSOURI
LINE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO FORM IF WINDS ARE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY
IS GENERALLY REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARE
CURRENTLY, WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THE ACTIVITY HAS NOT MOVE MUCH
EAST FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO NOW AS A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE
FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE ACTIVITY. UNCAPPED MUCAPE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREA OCCURRING. THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL YESTERDAY, SO A FLOODING RISK
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING, WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
TODAY. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVING OUT OF THESE LOCATIONS BY NOON, IF
NOT SOONER, SO NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH WILL OCCUR. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST THE CAP WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
ALLOWING THE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO START TO MOVE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS LIKELY MAKING IT TO THE
HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW THAT THE CAP WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FURTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING,
SO THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL NORTHEAST INTO IOWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO LOCATED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO
IOWA TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL DEVELOP BY MID
MORNING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF HIGH
ENOUGH MIXING CAN OCCUR THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES BUT WITH THE SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS IS A LOW POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
AS SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR INTO THIS EVENING AND WILL LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THE CAP WILL WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY LIMITED
CONVECTION DEVELOP. FURTHER EAST SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE AND SOME SCATTERED STORM DEVELOP WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65..
MLCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL JUST SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL AS THE BETTER UPPER AIR SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. SO FORCING MAY NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG ACROSS THE
AREA. ALSO, THE DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS CLOUD LIMIT HOW
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE REALIZED. THEREFORE, THERE
ARE STILL QUESTION ON STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE. IF STORMS
CAN DEVELOP AND OVER COME THE DRY AIR THERE WOULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL START TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS, IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND REMAIN
SURFACE BASE AND ORGANIZED INTO THIS EVENING THERE COULD BE A
LOW TORNADO RISK THIS EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 63.
THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IOWA ON FRIDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONCE AGAIN TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO OCCUR AT TIMES. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO AND THROUGH AND THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS STRONG FORCING OCCURS WITH THE FRONT.
THE MAIN RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND AND SOME HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE BETTER INSATIABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A BRANSON TO ROLLA MISSOURI LINE, WHERE THE BETTER
COVERAGE IN STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR, BUT AT
LEAST A SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THIS LINE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CAPE IN PLACE TO TO
SUPPORT A RISK FOR A FEW SPIN UP TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE WITH
ANY LINE SURGES TO THE EAST. THE LINE WILL BE MOVING FAST SO ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE BRIEF IN NATURE, BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY INTO TODAY COULD SEE A LOCALIZED
FLOODING RISK WITH THIS ADDITIONAL FLOODING RISK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME UPPER 50 READINGS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST POTENTIAL
EACH MORNING AS THE NBM IS SHOWING A 20-50% (LOW TO MODERATE)
CHANCE OF TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 36 DEGREES BOTH THOSE MORNINGS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY EAST OF THE THE
TAF SITES COVERAGE IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTER WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WEAKEN BY THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073.
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055-056-066-
067.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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