594
FXUS63 KSGF 031054
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND
NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A BRANSON TO ROLLA MISSOURI LINE. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO FORM IF WINDS ARE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT:
- IMPACTS: SEVERE STORM HAZARDS. SLIGHT FLOODING THREAT.
- DETAILS: SPC SEVERE THREAT RANGES FROM SLIGHT ALONG AND NW OF
A BRANSON TO ROLLA LINE AND MARGINAL SE OF THIS LINE. PRIMARY
HAZARD IS DAMAGING WINDS, BUT BRIEF TORNADO SPINUPS AND 1
INCH HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- CONFIDENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING (6PM-5AM). HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN PRIMARILY LINEAR STORM MODE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN FLOODING THREAT.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS:
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AND EXIT
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, FORCING A LINE OF
STORMS.
- SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT LIMITED SHEAR AND ELEVATED NATURE
OF THESE STORMS PREVENTS SEVERE WEATHER FROM BEING
EXPECTED.
- PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 60-70 MPH GIVEN 30-40 KT
MEAN 0-6 KM WINDS, 1,000-1,300 J/KG OF CAPE (LESS TO THE
EAST LATER IN THE NIGHT), AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS.
WIND FIELDS ARE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SUPPORTING
LINEAR STORM MODE.
- GIVEN LINEAR MODE AND 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS VECTORED TO
THE NE, THERE MAY BE A FEW BRIEF TORNADIC SPINUPS IN
SEGMENTS THAT BOW OUT TO THE NE.
- COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED 1 INCH HAIL, BUT THINK THIS WILL
NOT BE COMMON GIVEN STORM MODE.
- NEW SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK DID INCREASE TORNADO AND HAIL
PROBABILITIES (INCLUDING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES), BUT
NEED TO MONITOR FOR CHANGES IN GUIDANCE THAT SUGGEST NON-
LINEAR MODES TO MATCH THIS TREND WITH LOCAL MESSAGING.
- FLOODING IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN GIVEN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE FRONT, BUT WITH NEARLY FRONT-PARALLEL FLOW
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED OPPORTUNITIES FOR TRAINING.
HREF LPMM VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP
TO 2-3 INCHES, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO 3 HOUR FFG.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
COOLER WITH FROST POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
- IMPACTS: FROST POTENTIAL
- DETAILS: FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POTENTIALLY LINGERING COOLER
TEMPS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS.
- CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN FROST.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS. IN TYPICAL COLD VALLEYS AND WHERE WINDS CAN BECOME
LIGHT, LOCALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
FOR TODAY, EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSGF AND KBBG THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE WITH A LINE OF STORMS ALONG A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE ARE LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LATER ROUND OF STORMS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page