190
FXUS63 KSGF 040001
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND
NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A BRANSON TO ROLLA MISSOURI LINE. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO FORM IF WINDS ARE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS:
THE MISSOURI OZARKS IS CURRENTLY UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS A RESULT, LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
AREA WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY DOWN TO/AROUND 3000-4500 FEET.
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS, HOWEVER THEY'RE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EVEN FURTHER. WARM,
MOIST AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTED INTO THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURE
OBSERVATIONS SO FAR (AS OF 1PM) RANGING IN THE 70S. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVEN'T
REACHED PEAK HEATING, WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
GUSTY WINDS TODAY:
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY,
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALREADY TODAY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE SHOWN SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-15MPH GUSTING
UP TO 25-35MPH (AND SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40MPH) PRIMARILY ALONG/WEST
OF HIGHWAY 65 (WITH THE HIGHER OBSERVED GUSTS WEST OF I-49). NBM
PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS >30MPH SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES (70-90%)
FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH 6PM BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BELOW 20-25MPH. REGARDING HIGHER GUSTS, PROBABILITIES OF
GUSTS >=40MPH REMAIN AT 30-40% UNTIL 2-3PM BEFORE PROBABILITIES
DROP BELOW 15%.
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER:
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE'S THREE
DIFFERING SITUATIONS WITH VARYING CONFIDENCE LEVELS OUTLINED
BELOW:
LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO #1: CAMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS THE QUESTION OF WHAT STORM MODE THESE WILL BE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THEY'LL JUST POSE A SUB-SEVERE TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE RISK, WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTERS, BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 60MPH,
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THE HIGHEST-POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
HOWEVER, THERE'S A LOW- END CHANCE THAT THESE COULD TAKE A
SUPERCELLULAR MODE, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE OF THE LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL (UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER) AND A FEW TORNADOES TO BE
POSSIBLE. THIS IS THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIO, BUT IT AT LEAST
DESERVED A MENTION.
LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO #2: ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO TAKES
STORM INITIATION OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA INTO ACCOUNT. FURTHER NORTHWEST
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WITH SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH. THIS WOULD
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH
OVER NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA. THE LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO WOULD BE
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE CONGEALING
TOGETHER TO FORM THE LINE SEGMENT. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS,
THERE'S SUFFICIENT CAPE (SBCAPE >1500 J/KG) DECENT SHEAR (0-1KM
SHEAR ~35KTS; 0-6KM SHEAR: 30-40KTS), MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES >7.0
C/KM, AND A BACKING WIND PROFILE. REGARDING THE WIND PROFILE, IF
THERE WERE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND COMPONENT THAT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. BUT
REGARDLESS, IF THIS SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION, THE SUPERCELLULAR
STORM MODE WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
AND A FEW TORNADOES FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF I-44 AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THE SPC LATE-MORNING UPDATE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
POTENTIAL BY EXTENDING THE HATCHED HAIL RISK FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AGAIN, THIS IS ANOTHER LESS- LIKELY SCENARIO.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO: THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE MAIN
AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ON THE LINE THAT
PUSHES THROUGH ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AMPLE SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO
POTENTIAL BOWING SEGMENTS, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70MPH
LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, WITH SMALL HAIL (GENERALLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS, BUT ISOLATED UP TO QUARTER SIZE) AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR BETWEEN 30-35KTS VECTORIZED
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, THERE'S ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICK
SPIN-UP TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE. TIMING FOR THIS LINE LOOKS TO
PUSH INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES NO EARLIER THAN 6PM (BETWEEN
6-8PM), PUSHING EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE EXITING OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL:
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, FLOODING ISN'T A HUGE CONCERN
WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AS THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVELY. THAT BEING SAID, WPC HAS OUTLINED A LARGE PORTION OF
OUR AREA (GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 63) IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, WHICH
COULD POSE A RISK OF LOCALIZED TRAINING AND HENCE, LOCALIZED
FLOODING. COMPARING THE 12Z HREF LPMM RUN TO THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED, WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES, AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
(THE PREVIOUS RUN HAD LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES - SO A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN AMOUNTS).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL:
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST (WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT) AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA. THE INTERQUARTILE SPREAD SHOWS ONLY A 4-DEGREE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES ON SATURDAY,
LEADING TO FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WOULD BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, AS THE NORMAL HIGHS RANGE BETWEEN 64-66
DEGREES AT OUR FOUR CLIMATE SITES. THESE MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN
THE 60S, REACHING THE LOW 70S OVER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COUPLED WITH LIGHT
OVERNIGHT WINDS, THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL COLD VALLEYS/EASTERN
OZARKS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS TOWARDS THE
OZARKS, WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. GUSTY 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY THEN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. CIGS DROP WITH THE
FRONT INTO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES, WITH VISIBILITY ALSO
REDUCED TO AS LOW AS 1 MILE AT TIMES WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH VERY STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST CELLS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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