742
FXUS63 KSGF 051110
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.
- STEADY WARMING TREND AND A PATTERN CHANGE AROUND MIDWEEK
BRINGING POTENTIALLY PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
THE OZARKS REMAIN SUBJECT TO TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY, SUPPORTING THE MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY WE SAW. THOUGH THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF AND WE ARE NOT
AT RISK FOR ANY PRECIPITATION, THE NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS THROUGH A
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. COUPLED WITH CLOUDLESS SKIES, CAA AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING ARE WORKING TOGETHER THIS MORNING TO DROP OUR
LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. FOR THIS REASON, A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 9 AM, PARTICULARLY BECAUSE THE
ABNORMAL WARMTH AS OF LATE HAS ALLOWED FOR AGRICULTURAL BLOOM THAT
COULD BE HARMED BY THE SUDDEN COLD AIR.
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
TODAY, BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD IN THE MEANTIME. CLEAR SKIES
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER,
GENERALLY RANGING 60-65. WINDS DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD. THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM WITH LOWS AROUND
40.
FLOW IS A BIT SPLIT ON MONDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND
AN INVERTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH, SO WIND DIRECTIONS WILL VARY. CLEAR
SKIES ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER AND INTO THE MID-60S CLOSER TO CENTRAL MISSOURI.
CLOUDS START TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY IN THE INVERTED RIDGE BEGINS TO INITIATE LIFT. SOME MODELS
BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, BUT LIMIT IT
TO PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA. OUR VERY NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES,
MORGAN AND BENTON, HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF SEEING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME, BUT MAY VERY REALISTICALLY STAY DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW DEGREES AND WILL LAND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN TUESDAY AS WE GET SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THE MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE AND INCOMING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD REACH 15-20 MPH WEST OF HWY 65.
THE WARMING TREND IS BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED AS THE COLD AIR TO THE EAST
SAGS WEST A BIT DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BUT WE STILL LAND IN THE 60S.
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER COMES BOWLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY, AND OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH IN. WEST OF HWY 65, WINDS COULD GUST UP TO
30-35 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH. ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST,
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. ALL OF THIS FLOW IS DIRECTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID-70S. THE WARM FRONT PASSES
SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY, BUT THE COLD FRONT SEEMS TO LAG AND STALL,
PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR POTENTIALLY A COUPLE OF DAYS. I-44
AND NORTH HAVE 30+% POPS THURSDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES MOVING IN AND
COVERING THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION, OUR TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STATISTICAL
SPREADS START TO GET BIGGER AROUND FRIDAY AND LATER, WITH
INTERQUARTILE RANGES AROUND 8 DEGREES SPANNING THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. SO, WE STILL AT LEAST EXPECT TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO SEE PRECIPITATION
OF SOME KIND BY LATE WEEK, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WPC IS
HIGHLIGHTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA IN AN AREA AT RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CPC HIGHLIGHTS A LARGE CORRIDOR OF
THE U.S., FROM NEARLY THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER UP THROUGH OUR AREA
AND TO THE MICHIGAN-CANADA BORDER, AS AT RISK FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THAT IN MIND, THERE IS HARDLY
ANYTHING OF NOTE ON THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS THROUGH DAY 8.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND
NO PRECIPITATION.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>097-105.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...NELSON
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