757
FXUS63 KSGF 051827
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 TONIGHT. MAY HAVE SOME
PATCHY FROST IN THE EASTERN OZARKS.
- STEADY WARMING TREND AND A PATTERN CHANGE AROUND MIDWEEK
BRINGING POTENTIALLY PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SPLIT FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE CONUS WITH
THE POLAR JET CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WEAKER SUBTROPICAL
FLOW WAS PUSHING EAST OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE, THE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF LOUISIANA INTO THE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S AT MIDDAY ACROSS THE AREA AFTER LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER
30S THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND WE SHOULD
SEE THOSE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BACK INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE UPPER
30S FOR LOWS, WITH SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS IN THE MID
30S. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME PATCHY FROST, BUT PROBABLY
NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY AGAIN TONIGHT.
MONDAY: WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MINNESOTA INTO THE GREAT LAKES, A
SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. WE
SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 70S
IN THE SOUTH.
MONDAY NIGHT: A FAIRLY STRONG BUT NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SETS UP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
THIS BAND HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD WITH PROGRESSIVE
MODEL RUNS WITH THE BEST LIFTING FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO
NORTHEAST MO. WE HAVE SOME FAIRLY LOW POPS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA, BUT MOST LIKELY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THIS EVENT. ALL
OF THE HREF MEMBERS ARE KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. NOTE: IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS INTO
NORTHERN MO OR IOWA, THE BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN COOL
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY BUT TO OUR NORTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WE'LL SEE A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOWS A TROUGH PUSHING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST CWA TO
LOW 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL TRY TO PHASE TOGETHER OVER THE PLAINS.
WILL SEE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/FRONT
TO THE WEST. WIND GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY
EXCEED 30 MPH DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNSETTLED PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND: THE
MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A
FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY TO OUR NORTHWEST OR BISECTING THE AREA
IN OUR NORTHWEST CWA. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA ALL THE WAY FROM THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF A LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SAME TIME, STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL PERSIST INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE TO OUR WEST AND OVER
OUR WESTERN CWA UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE
EAST AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ABOVE, SO A BROAD TIMEFRAME OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA TODAY WITH SOME NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON UP
TO 20 KTS. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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