509
FXUS63 KSGF 191645
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND A DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FEATURING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN BY NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN AS SEEN
ON THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING (0.21IN PW VALUE). SKIES WERE CLEAR
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
HOWEVER MANY AREAS HAVE GONE CALM. THE WIND PROTECTED/SHELTERED
AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
MOST LOCATIONS HOWEVER WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE FOR LOCATIONS THAT DROP DOWN
INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S.
DRY WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TODAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND A DRY
AIRMASS. TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT DROPPING INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THERE. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY BUT A FEW AREAS MAY SEE A SPRINKLE NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF
ROLLA. WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY-FRIDAY: DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEEK AS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LARGE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WILL BE OUR NEXT RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. CIPS ANALOGS AND CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROBS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOWEVER PREDICTABILITY IN FINER DETAILS
IS LOW FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...PEREZ
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