653
FXUS63 KSGF 192308
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
608 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND A DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, FEATURING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-80%) RETURN BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT:
A DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
FEATURING A SLIGHT WARM UP AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL. THIS HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT, A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
SNEAKING INTO CENTRAL MO, THOUGH POPS REMAIN LESS THAN 10% GIVEN
LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE RETURN. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S,
WITH A BIT COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES SHAPE INTO EARLY WEEK, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT RIDGING ACROSS
THE PLAINS, WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS NUDGING INTO THE
AREA. AS A RESULT, A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. ADDITIONALLY,
DRIER WEATHER PREVAILS WITH THIS PATTERN.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY:
BY THURSDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH
BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DYNAMICS BECOME STRONGER, SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS RAIN CHANCES
(50-80%) INCREASE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE LATEST
TRENDS SUGGEST THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS (15-29%) ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
WEEK. WPC DAY 3-7 HAZARDS OUTLOOK ENCOMPASSES OUR AREA FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THERE ARE
STILL MANY REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EXACT TIMING,
LOCATIONS OF GREATEST CONCERN, AND HAZARD TYPES. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWER RAIN
CHANCES (20-40%) PERSIST BEYOND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS
DURING THE DAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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