172
FXUS63 KSGF 201744
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, FEATURING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-80%) RETURN BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT WAS PRESENT
ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. THE 00Z
KSGF SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. OTHER
THAN A SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI, SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
WARM AND DRY MONDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, A DRY AIRMASS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
WARM AND DRY TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK/COMPACT SHORTWAVE LOOKS
TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
REGARDLESS, A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LESS THAN 10
PERCENT. 850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MIDDLE 70S AS WELL AS A SLOW CLIMB
IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY - SUNDAY: A PATTERN
SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN US. SEVERAL
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. ONE SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL FORCE
A SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
TO INCREASE (NOW IN THE 60-80% RANGE). THE SPC SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE WPC
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL
DETERMINE ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES. IF THE FRONT GETS TOO
FAR SOUTH THEN RAIN CHANCES MAY DECREASE, HOWEVER IF THE FRONT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS. THE WPC
HAS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN, FRONTAL PLACEMENT WILL BE A CRITICAL
FACTOR IN HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE THREATS. THE FRONT DOES LOOKS TO
MEANDER OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. WHEN COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN A WEST - SOUTHWEST FLOW, RAIN
CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT TIMES. THE LATEST NBM
HIGHLIGHTS A 50-70% CHANCE OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 1.00IN
(THURSDAY-SUNDAY TOTAL).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
NEAR 20 MPH THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS STAY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...SORIA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page