912
FXUS63 KSGF 220511
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-90%) RETURN THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE ARE STILL REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES.
- WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER WEST-CENTRAL
MO LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH TODAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND LED TO GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
START TO FILTER IN LATER THIS EVENING AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WE START
TO GET BETTER MOISTURE RETURN ONCE THAT RIDGE PUSHES A BIT
FURTHER TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER OK/TX TO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING OVER US BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THOUGH, TONIGHT WILL STILL HAVE LOWS INT HE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS CLOUDS START TO PUSH IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT NEAR 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DEWPOINTS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY, WHICH MEANS IT'LL FEEL MORE HUMID EVEN THOUGH
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE SAME IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
WILL BE A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AND WIND GUSTS WON'T BE AS
STRONG. EXPECT GUSTS TO BE NEAR 20-25 MPH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY FEATURES OUR PATTERN CHANGE. THERE
HAVEN'T BEEN TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE SPC OUTLOOKS AT THIS
TIME. WE STILL NEARLY MISS THE SLIGHT RISK (2/5) THAT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR EASTERN KS AND NW MO. THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE WON'T SEE
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT IT DOES MEAN THAT THE BEST INGREDIENTS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE KC AREA ONCE
AGAIN. BUT, WE ARE OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHERE IN OUR
CWA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT ALMOST EVERYDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW, THE TIMING FOR THESE
STORMS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOW A FEW STORMS FIRING UP
LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN A WRAP AROUND COLD FRONT
WILL BRING US STORMS ON FRIDAY, THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COULD CHANGE AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING OR LOCATION OF THE FRONT CHANGES.
WPC STILL HAS US IN THE SAME OUTLOOKS FOR FLOODING FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK (MARGINAL RISK 1/4) AND MODELS ARE STARTING TO
NARROW DOWN ON A SMALL CORRIDOR OF HIGHER END RAINFALL TOTALS
WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT WHICH IS
OVER THE BOURBON/VERNON/ST. CLAIR COUNTY AREAS IN OUR NW CWA.
THE LITTLE OSAGE, OSAGE, AND MARMATON RIVERS ALL HAVE FLOOD
WARNINGS OUT AT THIS TIME. THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT HAVE GONE
THROUGH HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL OVER THAT AREA AND
THE GROUND IS QUITE SATURATED. THAT AREA COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR 3-5 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRATUS DECK
PUSHING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
UNDERNEATH. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, THESE
LOWERED CEILINGS WILL PUSH INTO KJLN (GENERALLY AFTER 07Z) AND
LATER KSGF (AFTER 10Z), DROPPING THE CURRENT VFR CIGS DOWN
BETWEEN 1500-2500FT, WITH IFR CIGS TO 900FT POSSIBLE BETWEEN
09Z-12Z AT KJLN. THESE LOWERED CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH
KBBG BY 15Z. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
20KTS AT KJLN.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...MELTO
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