010
FXUS63 KSGF 221100
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-90%) RETURN THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE ARE STILL REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES.
- DAILY CHANCES EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEAST NEAR MS/AL.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWCASED AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN MO DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN TX, WITH OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 1500-2500FT UNDERNEATH. AS THE
EARLY MORNING CONTINUES, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE LIFTING BACK OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS IS THE RESULT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS, AS STREAMLINES SHOWCASE SURFACE WINDS USHERING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF AS AIR FILTERS AROUND A
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED EAST OF THE ARKLATEX REGION.
WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
ADDED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S, LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID FEEL TO THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS, AND IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THURSDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE, AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS, PROJECTING
SEVERAL SPOKES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN CANADA, DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT
NOW, TIMING CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTIES, HOWEVER WE'RE
STILL THINKING STORMS COULD REACH OUR NORTHWEST AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY, PUSHING THROUGH INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS FIRST
ROUND. DESPITE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE, THE MOST
PROBABLE HAZARD LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO INCLUDE AREAS
ALONG/NORTHWEST OF A NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY TO MORGAN COUNTY
LINE, WITH THE HIGHER AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINING NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
PUSH THROUGH. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
SEVERE OUTLOOKS, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SPECIFICS OF THIS ACTIVITY
(I.E. LOCATION, SEVERITY, ETC.) WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION, SO HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
SUNDAY/MONDAY DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER AS A MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION. A RESULTANT SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OK PANHANDLE, LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST AND PLACING THE
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. WITH THIS STILL BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT, LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS EXISTS, SO WE'LL NEED TO CONTINUE
MONITORING TRENDS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM MOVING
FORWARD.
WE'LL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL, AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.
INCREASED CHANCES IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS OVER AREAS
PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, WITH WPC HIGHLIGHTING A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR AREA IN MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4) RISKS DAILY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO DOWN
THROUGH SOUTHERN TX CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS. THESE LOWERED CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z-21Z.
OTHERWISE, SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
20KTS PRIMARILY AT KJLN TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
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