999
FXUS63 KSGF 222008
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-90%) RETURN THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH IS THE MAIN
THREAT.
- DAILY CHANCES EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CLOUD DECK TRYING TO
BREAK UP OVER US WITH A FEW PEAKS OF SUN HERE AND THERE.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN QUITE A BIT WARMER TODAY IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY TODAY NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS
STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NEAR 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY
BREAKING UP AS THE EVENING GOES ON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THURSDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TOMORROW WITH WINDS THE STRONGEST OVER WESTERN MO NEAR 35
MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO FORM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND FLOW INTO OUR NW CWA. WE HAVE 20-30% POPS OVER
THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER NE KS AND NW MO WHERE THE BULK
OF THE SLIGHT RISK (2/5) IS LOCATED. OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE
JUST BARELY INCLUDED IN THAT AREA. THOUGH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (UP TO 60 MPH) WILL BE
THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY AS IT PUSHES
FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MO AND IT BECOMES MORE LINEAR.
THE BETTER SHEAR (ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE) WILL OCCUR OVER SE
KS AND THE FAR SW MO. THIS AREA (FOR OUR CWA) IS THE BEST AREA
FOR SPIN-UP TORNADOES TO OCCUR. SHEAR DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH AS
YOU GO FURTHER EAST IN THE STATE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
START TO TURN NORTHERLY FOR CENTRAL MO BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING JUST SOUTH OF I-44 ON FRIDAY.
THIS HAS LED TO THE SLIGHT RISK (2/5) BEING ISSUED FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH I-44. IF THE FRONT WRAPS BACK AROUND OR STALLS
IN THAT AREA, IT COULD CAUSE CONVECTION TO OCCUR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRIDAY SEVERE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL AND WILL
BE ENTIRELY BASED ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT ON FRIDAY
MORNING AND HOW LONG THE INITIAL CONVECTION WITH THE FIRST PUSH
OF THE COLD FRONT STICKS AROUND. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL
LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE MO/AR BORDER WHERE THERE'S BETTER
INSTABILITY. AGAIN, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONVECTION MAY BE SHORTER LIVED AND
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FRIDAY MORNING PLAYS OUT.
NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO A FEW SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT'S SYSTEM WILL BE
OVERFLOW CONVECTION FROM NE OK AND SE KS. THE MAIN AREA FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR TO OUR WEST OVER THOSE AREAS. HAZARDS
ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT THE STORMS THAT PUSH
IN FROM THOSE AREAS MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE STORM
SYSTEM WE SEE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN, WE GET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH.
THIS ACTIVITY UNFORTUNATELY DOES BRING IN THE CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. LAST WEEK WE SAW THAT THESE STORMS CAN
BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND HAVE CAUSED THE RIVER
LEVELS TO RISE ESPECIALLY OVER IN WESTERN MO. WPC HAS MOST OF
THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (1/4)
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW,
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAINFALL. WPC HAS THAT AREA SEEING UPWARDS OF 3-5 INCHES THROUGH
THAT FIVE DAY PERIOD (THU-MON). LOOKING AT THE SOUTHERN REGIONAL
CLIMATE CENTER, AREAS NORTH OF I-44 HAVE RECEIVED 200-600% OF
THEIR 30-DAY AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS. THIS MEANS THAT THOSE
AREAS ARE ALREADY SATURATED AND SOME RIVERS ARE STILL ELEVATED
ABOVE THEIR NORMAL LEVELS AS WELL. WE'LL HAVE TO CAREFULLY
MONITOR FOR ANY FLOODING IN THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND. LASTLY,
WINDS MAY NOT EVEN HAVE TO BE +60 MPH TO TAKE DOWN TREES. SINCE
THE SOIL IS SO SATURATED, THIS MAY CAUSE EVEN MORE TREES TO
BECOME UPROOTED WITH ANY MODERATE WIND GUSTS THAT COME THROUGH
THAT AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS LEAVING US WITH VFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND COULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...SORIA
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