467
FXUS63 KSGF 232345
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION
TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH
IS THE MAIN THREAT.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING OF EACH ROUND.
- WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL LAST WEEK
NORTHWEST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE IS LOCATED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO
THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY
IS LOCATED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING, AFTER 9PM THEN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE STORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
LATE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
THE LINE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN RISK, WITH AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL RISK,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-49. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
A LOW BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY SURGES IN THE LINE TO THE
EAST, WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN TO THE
EAST. AS THE STORMS MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, THE MAIN
RISK WILL BE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS FOR A FEW HOURS AND
COULD ALL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE MID MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. LIFT
WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE
BETTER STORM POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44 FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SUB SEVERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED BY THE MID EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
FRIDAY SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AND THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA SATRUDAY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY COULD THEN DEVELOP INTO
A LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
RISK.
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65. THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BUT SOME SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. AS PEAK HEATING ENDS,
THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY EVENING.
FURTHER TO THE WEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS WITH A DRY LINE SETTING UP ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE ON
SUNDAY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
SUNDAY THEREFORE, THE DRY LINE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TO THE EAST
SUNDAY EVENING. SO, IT IS POSSIBLE THE STORMS REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA IN THE BETTER INSTABILITY. IF THE DRY LINE AND
INSTABILITY AXIS CAN MOVE TO THE EAST ENOUGH, THERE WOULD BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING AT LEAST IN THE WEST. THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
FAR EAST THE STORMS CAN MAKE ON SUNDAY. IF THESE STORMS CAN MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA, LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FEW TORNADOES
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS
WEST OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA. AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 12Z MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH IT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL A AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL THIS ROUND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF
STORMS, AND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS, THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF RIVERS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY IF THESE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TRACK OVER LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-44 THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND STALL. THE
FRONT MAY THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH MID/LATE WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
CLOUDCOVER AND INCOMING CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL MAKE FOR
CHANGING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY,
SITES ARE VFR OR HIGH-END MVFR AS THE PRIMARY CLOUD DECK PUSHES
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BEGIN TO IMPINGE FROM
THE WEST. CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
EVENING, AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN, AFFECTING JLN
AND SGF AS EARLY AS 05Z. SPOTTY LLWS MAY BE A CONCERN AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH
WINDS.
CEILINGS ESPECIALLY, AND POTENTIALLY VISIBILITY, ARE EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH, BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 06 AND 18Z. WINDS START GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
BECOME QUITE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY
TURNING CLOCKWISE, BECOMING WESTERLY AND FINALLY NORTHERLY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS CEASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNDOWN THIS EVENING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...NELSON
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