364
FXUS63 KSGF 241126
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS
MAY STILL BE SEVERE HOWEVER A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED.
- MOST OF SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- MAIN SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE CHANCES.
- LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH TRAINING STORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH UPPER JET ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
SHIFTING EAST.
REST OF TONIGHT-FRIDAY: THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT PUSHES EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA MAY CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE MAIN REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SOME TRAINING OF STORMS MAY PRODUCED SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING, HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COMPLEX SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK TO A MINIMUM.
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY: THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER
SASKATCHEWAN WITH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE
LOW INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE OVER KS/OK/AR, POSSIBLY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER KS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY MAY PUSH
INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND WESTERN MO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
A JET STREAK WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THE MAIN
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AND MAY POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING
RISK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
FOR THE 12Z TAFS, SHRA/TSRA HAS SHIFTED EAST OF JLN/SGF BUT WILL
STILL HANG ON THROUGH 13-14Z WITH SOME TSRA. SOME STRATUS IN
MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE RAIN CLEARING CLEARING FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MORNING AT
SGF/JLN AND IN THE AFTERNOON FOR BBG. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A
PROB30 GROUP FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT AT BBG THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. SKY WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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